Bitcoin at Chilly Low Volatility Despite Remain Near $600K
Bitcoin’s price volatility has dipped to historical lows, currently hovering around $585,000, more than 2% below its all-time high. With the calm market often described as a “quiet before the storm,” analysts warn that Q3 and Q4 could bring increased market activity (potential “fireworks”).
In Brief
- Bitcoin volatility reaches historic lows as its price trades more than 2% below the all-time high, nearing $600,000.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) holds nearly 700,000 Bitcoin, representing approximately 3.52% of the total Bitcoin supply.
- Markets appear aware of an expected delay in tariffs and rate cuts, but President Trump’s August 1 trade deadline remains a potential risk point for global financial markets.
Analysts from QCP Capital suggest the current low volatility reflects market pricing for a “Goldilocks scenario,” incorporating expectations for delayed tariff implementations and Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year, alongside sustained fiscal deficits.
“While whales, OGs [Original Investors], and miners have largely stepped aside, Bitcoin remains very close to its all-time highs,” the analysts indicated. “This proximity is supported by steady inflows from institutional ETFs and corporate treasury purchases.”
Institutional Holdings
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has attracted nearly $53 billion in inflows since launching 18 months ago. Its holdings recently surpassed 700,306.7922 Bitcoin, making it the fastest-growing cryptocurrency ETF in its 32-year history.
This substantial holding translates to approximately 3.52% of the 19.8 million circulating supply of Bitcoin. Similarly, BlackRock’s Ethereum ETF holds approximately 1.5% of all ETH. Analysts from Bitget Wallet warn that continued ETF inflows could lead to a “structural supply squeeze,” resulting in less crypto on the open market, increased volatility, and higher price pressures.
Broad Market Context
The broader market shows strength, with the S&P 500 recently hitting an all-time high and rising over 3.6% in the last month, while the Nasdaq 100 gained slightly more than 4.2% during the same period.
QCP noted “credit spreads are the tightest they’ve been since the March-April correction,” indicating high investor confidence and appetite for risk due to narrow premium demanded for holding riskier corporate bonds.
Geopolitical Risk
The real macroeconomic signal under scrutiny is President Donald Trump’s ability to secure trade agreements before his August 1 deadline. Risk assets currently seem to accommodate the potential for blustery rhetoric without substantive action.
Should this August 1 deadline result in tangible actions like tariffs, the consequences could be significantly negative for growth-oriented assets, potentially challenging global risk resilience, according to QCP analysts.
