BTC Technical Analysis: Regression from All-Time High
Bitcoin experienced a new all-time high above $122,000 this week, but has subsequently retreated, trading below the $120,000 mark. A crucial test lies in this psychological resistance level.
- Bitcoin broke the July 14 all-time high of $122,838 shortly reached its peak.
- Current price sits near a descending trend line established at the latest high.
The Upper Threshold Test
The question now for the market is whether bulls can reclaim the $120,000 threshold before Friday’s close.
Prediction Markets Perspective
Data from prediction market Myriad (operated by Decrypt’s parent, Dastan) indicates caution. The platform suggests a 47% probability of holding above $120,000.
Current Price Dynamics
Bitcoin is trading around $119,765. It has tested the recent high multiple times, failing to sustain a clear upward trend. Trading volume has notably decreased since the July 14 peak.
Technical Indicators Point to Consolidation
Squeeze Momentum Indicator
The Squeeze Momentum Indicatorometer shows volatility compression on the 4-hour chart, suggesting potential for an impending price movement.
ADX Trend Analysis
The Average Directional Index (ADX) reading is 13, signifying a weakening of the bullish momentum established during the rapid ascent. An ADX below 20 generally suggests no clear trend direction.
Exponential Moving Averages
The 50-day EMA remains above the 200-day EMA (green ribbon visible) suggesting medium-term bullish structure. Price recently pulled back to support, forming a doji candlestick pattern.
RSI Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of approximately 59 indicates mild bullish momentum but not overbought conditions. The indicator suggests waiting for potential pullback confirmation.
Key Levels
- Immediate Resistance: $120,000
- Strong Resistance: Recent All-Time High at $122,838
- Immediate Support: Volume Profile Point of Control at $117,500
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed herein are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial or investment advice.
