Bitcoin Bounces Above $105K on Iran-Israel Ceasefire Hope
Bitcoin climbed above the $105,000 threshold after news reports surfaced suggesting an unintended temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, recovering losses suffered over the weekend following US missile strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities.
Volatility Slumps to Near-Years Low
Following the price recovery, the CME Group’s Bitcoin Volatility Index fell to 39.15—the lowest level since October 2023—signaling reduced trader expectations for significant price swings. Market participants appear to anticipate relative stability around or slightly above $105,000 before the expiry of monthly Bitcoin options scheduled for Friday.
Ongoing Caution Persists
Despite the rally, derivatives traders remain cautious. Notional open interest in Bitcoin perpetual futures experienced its steepest drop (a reduction of 17,394 BTC) in approximately six months as positions were unwound. According to K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde, this suggests期权 traders are de-risking ahead of the expiry, although market sentiment (Fear & Greed Index at 65 in Greed territory) indicates persistent caution about ongoing geopolitical risks.
Predictions and Political Outlook
Anecdotal evidence and market flow data indicate a view that Bitcoin is likely to trade near the $105,000 mark. However, volatility stemming from remaining geopolitical uncertainties remains notable according to Wintermute analysts. Looking forward, analysts noted apprehension regarding the ceasefire’s stability and highlighted increasing “headline risks,” including US budget negotiations and potential tariffs, which could impact market sentiment in the coming weeks.
