The Bitcoin (BTC) market demonstrates strong resilience as bulls recapture earlier losses triggered by global geopolitical tensions, pushing the cryptocurrency above $107,000 for the start of the new trading week.

Consolidation Breaks Out

A technically significant weekly close just above $104,500 positions Bitcoin favorably ahead of the upcoming Wall Street trading session, signaling pent-up demand.

Optimism among trading communities suggests the weekly recovery positions BTC to “hold” key support levels in the near term.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Analysts highlight order book liquidity patterns as crucial drivers for short-term price action.

Both Cointelegraph Markets Pro data and liquidity analysis from sources like CoinGlass point to key resistance levels near $104,000 and $105,000.

📈 BTC liquidity sandwich 🥪 Holding on around the 105k level, with liquidity tightly surrounding price to the upside and down. Likely we see both sides run today IMO.

— AlphaBTC (@mark_cullen) June 16, 2025

FOMC Week Begins Amid Geopolitical and Inflationary Pressures

The Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision casts a shadow over the week’s trading action, amid simmering fears that an oil price surge could exacerbate inflationary pressures.

CME Group data suggests the Fed is likely maintaining its pause on rate cuts throughout 2025.

Fed target rate probabilities for June 18 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group

Analysts will keenly monitor Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s post-press conference remarks for any shifts in policy stance, particularly in light of:

• Recent energy market volatility, with Mosaic Asset Management noting oil prices reversing sharply on Middle East tensions;
• Presidential pressure from Donald Trump on Fed independence;
• Potential market implications from the historically bullish correlation between cryptocurrency performance and specific macroeconomic factors (oil prices, dollar strength).

Market Sentiment Aligns: Hodl Wins Over Hype

On-chain analytics data from CryptoQuant reveals a remarkable alignment between large “whale” investors and retail participants around the current Bitcoin price.

Both investor categories have significantly reduced inflows into exchanges, the lowest levels since the inception of this market cycle.

“This pattern indicates a strong preference for holding rather than selling. Notably, both whales and retail investors appear aligned in their approach, a highly constructive signal for the market.”

Historical context reveals significant inflows occur at market peaks, contrasting sharply with the subdued activity observed recently in the cryptocurrency.

Price Action Points Towards Short Squeeze Scenario

Derivatives market analysis points towards a persistent discount in perpetual contracts relative to spot prices, a situation some analysts interpret as setting the stage for a potential short squeeze.

Bitcoin derivatives vs. spot price. Source: Alphractal/X

“If the BTC perpetual price difference on Binance turns positive again, it’s a sign that the price is about to explode… many institutions are already putting pressure through Shorts.”

The Alphractal “derivatives discount,” despite persisting above typical bear market levels, is noted by analysts as historically coinciding with strong bull markets.

Bulls Eye Targets Near $170,000, $200,000 and Beyond

Despite the lack of a clear upward momentum pattern, technical targets remain aggressively bullish.

Alan Tardigrade identified an “Ascending Broadening Wedge” suggesting the possibility of reaching “levels around $170k.”

A number of market participants anticipate a new all-time high, with some forecasts calling for BTC to reach $270,000 by year-end.

Key technical indicators currently display significant bullish weighting.

Source: CoinGlass