Key Takeaways

• Ethereum ETF inflows reflect persistent institutional demand.
• ETH supply on exchanges hits eight-year low alongside rising whale accumulation.
• MVRV price bands and V-shaped chart pattern hint at $4,000-$5,000 ETH price.

Strong Spot Ethereum ETF Flows

Despite Ether’s (ETH) price consolidation after an over 100% rally from four-month lows below $1,400 in April, data suggests the token could rally to $5,000 in 2025. A significant catalyst is the sustained inflow into Ethereum-based investment products.

Global net inflows into Ethereum investment products reached $226.4 million last week, continuing an 11-week positive streak according to CoinShares. Products are averaging 1.6% weekly inflows, higher than Bitcoin’s 0.8%.

“This highlights a notable shift in investor sentiment in favor of Ethereum. The sequential inflows provide strong conviction that ETH is shifting from a small-cap performer to a core asset,” said CoinShares head of research James Butterfill.

US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded particularly strong inflows, with Farside Investors data showing blackbox ETH ETFs gaining $148.5 million on Thursday and approximately $510 million in net inflows over the preceding two weeks. This marks eight consecutive weeks of positive inflows, totaling over 61,000 ETH.

Expert analysis indicates sustained inflows are pivotal for further price breakout. Reaching above $2,800 could signal renewed institutional accumulation pushing ETH towards multi-year highs.

Low ETH Supply on Exchanges

Diminishing supply on exchanges reinforces the case for a potential upside. Glassnode data shows Exchange Supply Ratio currently stands at a near eight-year low, reaching 13.5%—levels last seen in July 2016.

Low exchange supply correlates with reduced selling pressure coming from exchanges, often a precursor to bullish price movements through the concept of a “supply shock.” Furthermore, this reduction suggests large holders (whales) are accumulating rather than offloading ETH.

This accumulation by large holders is evident in Glassnode data: the supply in wallets holding 100,000 or more ETH increased from approximately 18.1 million ETH on May 21 to nearly 18.8 million ETH, signaling sustained accumulation even during recent market upswings.

Ether’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) Supports Further Upside

The ETH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) currently sits near 1.01, indicating that holders are spending coins primarily at a profit or are reluctant to sell immediately at a loss despite prevailing market levels.

This slight above-unity reading proves significant when the broader market context suggests most holders are indeed in profit. SOPR values above 1 during upward trends historically signal sustained market confidence and potential for further gains.

MVRV Bands Signal Potential $4k-$5k ATH

ETH’s MVRV extreme deviation pricing curves indicate significant upside potential. Having generally traded in the $2,400-$2,800 range since May, the token price retains room for expansion before moving to unrealized profit extremes defined by higher MVRV bands.

Furthermore, a V-shaped recovery pattern has formed on the weekly chart since December 2024. Breaking above the $2,600-$2,800 congestion zone would progress a significant rally, potentially targeting the $4,100 neckline and beyond toward previous all-time highs around $4,800.

Analysts weigh upgrades, network adoption and power consolidation like Ethereum treasury creation when forecasting reaches beyond current consolidation levels.