BTC Enters June’s Final Week Amid Geopolitics & Macro Volatility

Bitcoin (BTC) enters its last trading week of June as the cryptocurrency market navigates a convergence of geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, setting the stage for potentially decisive price movements.

Technical Indicators Signal Potential New Lows

Bitcoin traders are preparing for the possibility of new monthly lows, as exchange order book liquidity continues shifting towards the $90,000 level. Recent technical analysis points to a potential support retest lower than previously established.

While initial support at approximately $101,000 was ultimately respected for the weekly close, analysts caution that the next support level may be tested more aggressively. Market participant “CrypNuevo” highlighted concerning liquidity shifts observed in the order books, suggesting a potential for deeper selling pressure.

Onchain data provider Glassnode indicated that Bitcoin corrections since April have consistently sought support at the level corresponding to the cost basis for investors holding the asset for 155 days or less.

Market Reactions to Middle East Escalation

The latest developments in the Middle East, including heightened tensions between Israel and Iran, initially triggered short-term reactions across crypto, oil, and stock futures markets. However, the volatility proved ephemeral.

Financial analysis from “The Kobeissi Letter” suggests the markets are not pricing in a long-term conflict. The analysis observed minimal, transient impacts on US stock futures and oil prices despite significant geopolitical developments, reinforcing the view that market participants still anticipate a short-duration conflict.

“This is NOT a market that is pricing-in a long-term conflict.” — Kobeissi Letter

The letter further characterized the current market environment as exceptionally noisy due to simultaneous concerns over tariffs, war developments, Federal Reserve policy, recession fears, and inflation data.

Fed Policy Week: Powell Under Pressure

The coming week includes critical Federal Reserve-related events. The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauge on June 27 follows Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress. This occurs despite growing pressure on the Federal Reserve from President Trump.

Trading firm Mosaic Asset Management noted the Fed’s decision to maintain the current interest rate range of 4.25%–4.50% despite persistently low inflation figures, creating internal policy tension. The Fed’s relatively high rates compared to other developed economies represent nearly double the current level of consumer inflation.

Bitcoin Dominance Near Potential Reversal Point

Bitcoin’s dominance of the overall cryptocurrency market cap remains elevated by historical standards, approaching levels previously associated with market reversals.

Popular trader Rekt Capital posits that a rejection of Bitcoin dominance around the 71% mark could potentially trigger an “altseason,” providing an opportunity for alternative cryptocurrencies, including Ether (ETH), to catch up after lagging behind during previous bull phases.

While the combined market capitalization of cryptocurrencies ranked #11 through #20 fell to its lowest point since mid-April, indicating investor rotation away from smaller-cap assets, the stage may be set for a shift.

2025 Price Outlook: Crossing $200,000?

Analysis suggests that 2025 may represent the last year of significant bullish price appreciation within the current Bitcoin cycle. Crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend (BYPT) tool indicates a pattern of three years of expansion followed by a consolidation phase.

CryptoQuant explains that the BYPT filters out daily market noise to identify Bitcoin’s true cyclical rhythm, which aligns with its longer-term halving cycle. Analysis points to the potential for approximately 120% annualized gains in 2025, projecting a possible cycle high for Bitcoin above the $200,000 threshold.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.