Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:
As bitcoin
trades near $119,500, having just recently broken through another all-time high of $120,000, digital asset investment products are also breaking records for inflows – but there’s a regional disparity.
According to CoinShares, U.S.-listed funds dominated with $3.74 billion in inflows, while Germany saw $85.7 million in outflows, underscoring a growing divergence in global institutional sentiment.
This robust institutional appetite in the U.S. is exemplified by Vanguard’s evolving stance on crypto investments. Despite once branding bitcoin as an “immature asset class,” the $10 trillion asset manager is now Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR)‘s largest shareholder, indirectly becoming the most significant Bitcoin holder in traditional finance, as Presto Research recently noted in a daily markets update.
Meanwhile, QCP Capital highlights in a recent note that institutional enthusiasm remains notably robust, exemplified by over $2 billion net inflows into spot BTC ETFs last week.
Yet, derivatives markets suggest a more nuanced approach. Leveraged long positions are expanding aggressively, with perpetual funding rates approaching an elevated 30% and open interest surpassing $43 billion, levels unseen since BTC reclaimed $100k in January. Such aggressive positioning raises caution flags, recalling February’s abrupt $2 billion liquidation event.
“Froth is building,” QCP warns.
BTC Continues to Outpace Luxury Watches
Bitcoin
is up 27.87% year-to-date and 13.22% in the past month, easily outperforming the luxury watch market’s modest +4.5% rebound in Q2, according to a recent report co-authored by Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts.
Gains were concentrated in flagship models, Daytona, Nautilus, Royal Oak, while brands like Panerai, Breitling, and IWC underperformed. Inventory for watches under $5,000 remains historically elevated, and dealer turnover in that range continues to lag.
“Price recovery remains narrow and concentrated,” the report notes, driven by “renewed interest from high-end collectors and improved global risk appetite.”
Both BTC and watches, it adds, tend to benefit from “expansionary monetary environments and periods of wealth creation.”
But the speculative capital isn’t flowing evenly. Bitcoin has attracted more of the macro-driven bid, with institutional inflows and 24/7 liquidity making it the preferred high-beta asset.
The pandemic-era correlation between BTC and watches, both beneficiaries of easy money and speculative excess, broke down in late 2023 with the approval of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs.
BTC has since matured into a macro-sensitive, institutionally backed asset, while watches have returned to their roots: fashion.
Market Movements:
BTC: Bitcoin briefly approached $123,000 before cooling off, while crypto-related stocks held modest gains and analysts said the market remains far from euphoric, with one projecting BTC’s $2.5 trillion market cap could eventually converge with gold’s $22 trillion.
ETH: ETH surged past $3,079 in early trading on strong volume before retreating in the afternoon to settle near $3,011, forming a textbook breakout-pullback pattern with support holding above the key $3,000 level.
Gold: Gold slipped 0.1% after hitting a three-week high amid renewed tariff threats from President Trump and focus on trade talks and U.S. data, while silver surged to its highest level since September 2011.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed Tuesday, with investors brushing off President Trump’s tariff shifts and turning attention to upcoming Chinese economic data, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 remained flat.
S&P 500:RBC Capital Markets raised its 2025 S&P 500 target to 6,250 from 5,730, but unlike Goldman and BofA, it expects little upside from current levels, with the index already above 6,280 as of July 11.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- U.S. Banking Regulators Issue Crypto ‘Safekeeping’ Statement, Not Pushing New Policy (CoinDesk)
- China’s Stablecoin Studies Hint at ‘Tiered’ But Fractured Approach (Decrypt)
- Grayscale Files Confidential Submission for IPO With SEC (CoinDesk)
