Bitcoin $105K 'trend switch' comes as Fed hints at July rate cut

Bullish Crypto Price Action

June 24, 2025

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a rally to approach $105,000 (up from $101,443 around midday Tuesday), reinforcing bullish sentiment and testing resistance levels as Middle East ceasefire talks gained traction.

The multi-cycle resistance at approximately $105,000 appeared resilient even as BTC dominance showed minor fluctuations. Increased buying activity, characteristic of a “buy the dip” strategy, gathered strength late Tuesday.

The crypto market, having experienced slight deviations, demonstrated robustness through stable institutional inflows and strong risk appetite despite concurrent geopolitical developments.

Institutional investor activity, particularly net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, continued uninterrupted, signaling sustained confidence and addressing short-term market volatility, although flows showed modestness.

Analysts noted this persistent inflow as a significant data point, suggesting institutional capital was attuned to longer-term prospects, undeterred by short-term geopolitical events like heightened hostilities between the US and Iran.

Analysis suggests BTC repelled selling pressure, “buy the dip” target leveled at $103,000, and institutional trends remain intact, reinforcing the view that the previous $100,000 low was a correction, not a reversal.

– After market close Tuesday

“Strong rally from the range lows after a big liquidity grab and deviation… Now back near the middle of the range from the past 6 weeks or so.”
– Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCryptoTrades)

“It’s uptrending now, after we’ve had a massive liquidation crash taking place to sub $100K. It broke through $103K and hit the next resistance… Time to be buying the dip, so if we get to $103K, that’s the area you’d want to accumulate.”
– Michaël van de Poppe (@Michaël_vdp)

Geopolitical Breakthrough Fuels Risk Appetite
The renewed focus on Middle East ceasefire discussions spurred a wider risk-asset rally, including government bonds, as investors increasingly saw an opening amidst cooling regional tensions. This positive sentiment kept local currencies in the region relatively strong compared to the US dollar.

Fed’s Conditional Hawk-to-Dove Shift
A potentially bullish divergence emerged over interest rates. US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman indicated openness to a potential rate cut in July based on favourable upcoming data trends, potentially selling the dollar and adding downward pressure on Treasury yields.

If upcoming data show inflation continuing to evolve favorably, … I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting… to sustain a healthy labor market.”

– Michelle Bowman

“The Fed’s pronouncements do not rule out the possibility of a rate cut sooner than June.”
– Fed Target Rate Analyst

Market expectations from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool anticipate the first interest rate cut in 2024 at the September FOMC meeting, but Fed officials continue to press incoming hard data before deciding on policy shifts.

This article is not intended to be investment advice. Trading or investing in cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Always conduct thorough research (DYOR) before making investment decisions.