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Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a ranging environment, attempting to break above a descending resistance trendline and reclaim Monday’s $115,700 high, according to recent analysis.
CryptoMe: Hidden Risk Zone Forming Around $105,000
A potential hidden risk zone for Bitcoin is emerging around the $105,000–$106,000 level, highlighted by crypto analyst CryptoMe.
This area is gaining significance across multiple on-chain metrics:
- UTXO Cost Basis Histogram: Reveals a notable wall at $105,644, indicating significant accumulation or realization activity.
- 1–3 Month Holder Realized Price: Also hovers near $106,000, reflecting the average acquisition cost.
- Short-Term Holder (STH) Realized Price: Aligns closely at $105,350, representing the average cost for holders with positions lasting less than 155 days.
While short-term data points suggest potential near-term bearishness, CryptoMe maintains a bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin.
*Disclaimer: This analysis incorporates images. Click $112K-$113K Demand Zone Image and UTXO Realized Price Chart to view referenced visuals from Cointelegraph/TradingView and CryptoQuant/Glassnode respectively.*
Gaps and Uncertainty Below $117,000
Digital asset research firm Glassnode identified $117,000 as a location for significant resistance based on UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD).
A wide gap below $117,000 stretches down to $108,000, with minimal support noted around $113,000. This gap structure suggests a potential for rapid downside movement if price action fails to sustain support.
Furthermore, CryptoMe highlighted that the possibility of a retest around $105,000 could trigger sharp volatility, posing significant risks to leveraged traders in the derivatives market.
Elevated Open Interest: Market Fragility Persists
Data from Hyblock Capital shows Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) remaining elevated at $79 billion.
This sustained speculation in the futures market, coupled with BTC’s recent correction from multi-month highs near $123,000, keeps the market structure precarious.
The combination of persistently high open interest and a previously elevated Fear & Greed Index is noted by analysts as historically preceding local tops and corrections.
Following that pattern, BTC recently collapsed to $112,000 from $120,000. Although the current Fear & Greed Index has retreated to Neutral territory, the elevated open interest underscores ongoing price uncertainty.
BTC researcher Axel Adler Jr. also indicated that bearish signals in the futures market have eased marginally from -7.5% to -5.2%, but stressed that structural risks remain.
Adler cautioned that “a sudden negative catalyst could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, quickly amplifying downside momentum.”
This article is not financial advice. All investments and trading carry significant risks.
Consider conducting your own research before making any decisions.
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