Beyond Bull Market Age: Bitcoin Soars 590% Amidst New All-Time Longevity
Bitcoin has surpassed a significant milestone, entering its longest bull market to date with a 590% rally since the November 2022 low.
Defining Longevity in Bear Markets
While formal definitions for the start and end of Bitcoin bull markets remain elusive—a common measure suggests a 20% rise from troughs—the asset’s current surge has been tracked since the nadir of the preceding bear cycle on November 21, 2022, when the BTC/USD price dipped to $15,504.
Today, at $107,500, Bitcoin has climbed dramatically, reflecting a 590% increase over this period.
Historical Comparisons: Pace or Persistence?
Does this outperformance signal a new era or simply continuation of Bitcoin’s historical cycle of diminishing peak multiples? Looking back past bull markets since mid-2011—excluding the early price discovery phase—one cycle peaked near 620x (taking ~750 days) and the next surpassed 100x in under 850 days. The subsequent cycle (~22x over 1,060 days) proved comparatively slower.
This current cycle has achieved just a 6.2x increase so far, suggesting a pace roughly consistent with historical trends observed on a log scale chart depicting diminishing returns in bull market gains. If the market structure from previous cycles holds, peaking may follow another 110 days from this writing.
Dollar Debasement: Inflation’s Shadow
One caveat involves the 10% erosion of the US dollar’s value (approximated via the DXY index) since November 2022, potentially normalizing Bitcoin’s 2022 low to approximately $97,700. While acknowledging this nuance, the focus remains on the undeniable longevity of the current bull market.
With nearly a year and a half elapsed within its current upswing—making it the second-longest recorded—Bitcoin would surpass the prior duration record only if it continues past mid-October. Should that occur, this prolonged market phase would definitively claim the title of the most extended bull run in its known history.
