Bitcoin may only have a few months of price expansion left in its current cycle, following a historical pattern set in 2020, warns crypto analyst Rekt Capital.
Bull market may fade out after October
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital predicted Thursday that if the Bitcoin (BTC) rally adheres to the pattern established five years ago, the market could peak around October. This timeframe was determined to be approximately 550 days after the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024.
“We have a very small sliver of time and price expansion left,” Rekt Capital stated in a video, highlighting that this timeline suggests just “two to three months potentially that we have left in this bull market.”
Rekt Capital acknowledged that numerous market participants have discounted the halving cycle predictive metric, instead focusing on alternative signals like Bitcoin’s correlation with global M2 Money Supply.
“Many people are happy to throw away time-tested principles out the window,” he added. “Whereas it’s really important to rely on these sorts of metrics because they are not going to sway you as much as throwing everything out the window will.”
He suggested that some analysts are “chasing a new narrative,” sidelining the halving cycle metric.
Seizing upon a different market signal, crypto analyst Crypto Auris previously noted, “As global money supply expands, Bitcoin’s next target sits around ~$170K, following the flow.”
According to CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin was trading at $109,155 near the time of publication, approximately 2.5% below its recently recognized all-time high of $111,970.
Rekt Capital says chasing new Bitcoin metrics is “an emotional thing”
Rekt described analyzing new metrics like M2 Money Supply as an impulsive reaction. “It’s an emotional thing as well, and you don’t want emotional things clouding your judgement,” he stated.
However, several crypto analysts believe the traditional Bitcoin halving cycle metric is less predictive now, citing the increased institutional adoption of Bitcoin as a key difference from previous cycles.
Related: Bitcoin price holds range but needs fresh demand to break higher
Standard Chartered’s digital asset research head, Geoff Kendrick, echoed this sentiment Thursday, stating, “Thanks to increased investor flows, we believe BTC has moved beyond the previous dynamic whereby prices [traditionally fell 18 months after a halving cycle].”
In May, Standard Chartered had forecasted Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end. This projection also aligns with a target set by wealth management firm Bernstein, both significantly lower than BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes’ more optimistic $250,000 year-end prediction.
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