Market Overview
Intraday trading on Thursday showed relative calm in the cryptocurrency market, with major assets remaining near flat. Traders digested positive macroeconomic news, particularly stronger-than-anticipated US employment data, while considering asset allocation strategies.
- Bitcoin surpassed $110,500 earlier in the day, following a 0.4% gain over the previous 24 hours.
- Ethereum approached the $2,600 mark, showing gains despite technical bearishness.
- Solana meme coin Bonk led top 100 performers with a 10% surge.
Key Developments Driving the Market
The rally in traditional markets coincided with the release of robust US labour figures.
- The Department of Labor reported 147,000 new non-farm jobs in June, significantly exceeding the forecast of 110,000.
- The June unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, surpassing expectations and the May figure of 144,000 jobs.
This strong economic data contributed to gains in traditional indices while spot Treasury yields climbed to 4.334%, limiting equity market gains despite strong jobs numbers. Weekly jobless claims also decreased to 233,000, reinforcing the narrative of a resilient labour market and potentially delaying anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts.
BTC/Bitcoin Analysis: Attempting a Bullish Turn
Bitcoin showed measured strength during Thursday’s session, briefly breaching the $110,000 psychological barrier. Following this test of a multi-day bearish channel, price action consolidates near recent all-time highs.
Technical indicators suggest a complex situation:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 60, indicating strong bullish momentum but not yet overbought conditions (below 70).
- The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 12 suggests low trend conviction, placing Bitcoin in a consolidation phase.
- The channel breakout occurring with an RSI at 60 provides potential upside. While recent indicators raise questions, a significant price breakout could validate a short-term move.
Daily chart configurations, including the positioning of exponential moving averages (50-day above the 200-day) support a prevailing bullish structure, though concerns about a trend reversal remain. Key support levels to watch include $108,000 and $104,000, while resistance holds near $112,000.
ETH/Ethereum Analysis: Momentum Despite Headwinds
Ethereum saw limited gains during Thursday trading after recovering from earlier lows. The coin trades around $2,592, inching slightly higher after yesterday’s recovery.
Key technical factors include:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 57, indicating neutral territory (“sweet spot”) according to traditional criteria.
- The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 12 reflects low trend conviction, aligning with its Bitcoin counterpart.
- Despite a bearish “death cross” configuration (50-day EMA below 200-day EMA), price action showed resilience, signaling strong buyer intervention.
- The “On” status for the Squeeze Momentum Indicator potentially foreshadows upcoming increased volatility.
Ethereum appears to be forming a base after a stronger-than-expected daily swing from $2,374. Support levels are $2,500 and $2,400, while primary resistance remains at $2,700 followed by $2,900.
