Bitcoin (BTC) traders are closely monitoring the $20 billion monthly options expiry set for June 27. Despite a 1.72% decline over the last thirty days, participants hedging against potential losses were early in position for a more significant downturn.
A recent price recovery presents bulls with a potential opportunity to consolidate support around the $105,000 level. Holding this point could be critical in driving towards new all-time highs ahead.
Currently, open interest favors calls (market bets on price increases) at $11.2 billion versus puts (bets on declines) at $8.8 billion. Further notable is $7.1 billion in put options carry strike prices of $101,000 or below. This significantly favors bullish speculation.
Bitcoin bears’ Best Shot Relies on Mounting Uncertainty
Some market analysts link Bitcoin’s recent strength to a more dovish communication from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In testimony before the House Committee on Financial Services, Powell indicated “many paths are possible” for future interest rates, including “cutting sooner” should inflation persist at bay.
Several Fed officials commented on Yahoo Finance, signaling expectations for rate cuts as soon as the July policy meeting. Evidence cited includes recent data suggesting inflationary pressures remain contained. Concurrently, the S&P 500 index has reached its highest level in over four months.
Bulls interpret these stock market gains as potentially signaling a shift by short-term bond investors toward riskier assets like equities and cryptocurrency, seeking enhanced returns. This theory gains credence with projections of 5% S&P 500 revenue growth expected in 2025.
Thus, even absent anticipated near-term monetary expansion by central banks, declining fixed income yields could bolster Bitcoin. The options expiry approaches, heightening focus. The most plausible bearish outcome necessitates increased uncertainty prodded by factors like a drop in mining hashrate or geopolitical flare-ups, such as Middle East tensions.
Related: June remains Bitcoin’s danger zone, while S&P 500 eyes summer rally
Bitcoin Bulls Gain Edge if Price Surpasses $90,000
Based on current price trends, several probable outcomes are outlined. These projections estimate theoretical gains based on open interest imbalances but exclude more complex strategies.
-
$100,000 to $101,500 level: $1.74B calls vs. $1.75B puts – A near balance.
-
$101,500 to $102,500 range: $1.86B calls vs. $1.62B puts – Calls slightly favored by $235 million.
-
$102,500 to $104,500 interval: $1.93B calls vs. $1.18B puts – Calls strongly favored by $750 million.
-
$104,500 to $106,000 corridor: $2.47B calls vs. $1.06B puts – Calls massively favored by $1.41 billion.
-
$106,000 to $108,000 band: $2.84B calls vs. $750M puts – Calls significantly favored by $2.1 billion.
To limit losses, bears face the challenge of pushing Bitcoin below $101,500 before the expiry date. A move below $106,000 could jeopardize the bulls’ advantageous position and potentially stall a summer rally. Sustained resistance above this level, coupled with continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, remains a key bullish catalyst.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
