BTC Consolidates Near $115k as Bears Defend $120k Resistance
Key point:
- BTC faces selling pressure near $120,000, though bulls have staunchly held above $115,000, indicating anticipation for new highs.
Bitcoin (BTC) encountered selling pressure near its $120,000 resistance level earlier this week, testing bearish defenses. While the failure to break decisively above the psychological threshold triggered net outflows of approximately $285.2 million across U.S.-based spot exchange-traded funds over the past three days, as reported by Farside Investors data, signaling diminishing bullish conviction, technical indicators nonetheless point to ongoing resilience below.
The defining narrative for BTC currently is a consolidation struggle between powerful overhead resistance and underlying support. Market participants are scrutinizing whether the pivotal $115,000 mark yields ultimately to bullish momentum or succumbs to bearish pressure.
Technical Picture: Resistance Held, SMA Supports Bulls
The immediate resistance zone of $120,000 crumbled during intraday trading on Wednesday, forcing capitulation among buyers. The subsequent base around the $115,000 area coincides with the crucial 20-day simple moving average (SMA), providing a significant floor despite continued cautious sentiment from institutional investors.
BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Analysis of the BTC/USDT daily chart reveals a distinctly bullish structure beneath the current consolidation. The sustained positioning of the 20-day SMA as an active support level, coupled with an RSI registering comfortably within the positive territory, collectively underscores the presence of strong buying interest entering the market. Any sustained breach and closure above the $123,218 resistance threshold would trigger renewed upside momentum.
Potential Targets and Risk Assessment
Technical analysis points towards several significant levels currently governing BTC’s trajectory:
Breakout Scenario (Above $120k): Reaching the $123,218 resistance could pave the way for further gains targeting $135,729 and the psychological $150,000 barrier.
The primary bearish scenario crystallizes around a close below the aforementioned $115,961/20-day SMA. Such an eventuality would indicate waning bullish conviction and likely trigger profit-taking, potentially opening the door for sharp downside. Initial downside targets are identified at the inverse head-and-shoulders formation’s neckline, currently projecting towards $110,530. A subsequent close below this level would mark a significant deterioration, tilting the technical balance decidedly towards bearishness.
Tight consolidation near a previous all-time high pause often precedes decisive upward movement based on standard technical formations. The current consolidation phase shows buyers accumulating positions below the $120k level, suggesting they anticipate a continuation of the bullish trend.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The 4-hour timeframe analysis reveals a more balanced, though still cautiously bearish-leaning, picture. Currently, both key moving averages exhibit a flattening trend, suggesting a temporary equilibrium in market forces. However, the RSI hovers near the 50 midpoint, indicating neither strong bullish overload nor conclusive bearish momentum. Conversely, should short-term dynamics turn decisively negative – manifested by a breakdown below $115,500 – rapid selling could materialize, accelerating price action towards the $110,530 support level.
