Bullish Onchain Signals Emerge for Bitcoin, But Imbalances Persist

Bitcoin ($100,000) shows early signs of a potential strong rally, according to on-chain analysis, though lingering imbalances could trigger pullbacks.

Key Takeaways

• Similar to the aftermath of the LUNA/FXT collapse, stablecoin inflow patterns suggest fresh accumulation, potentially paving the way for a significant Bitcoin rally.

• Despite Bitcoin’s strength above $100,000, new network activity remains subdued, suggesting a “HODL” phase where holders await stronger demand.

Analysis of Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics presents divergent signals. While stablecoin inflows, as tracked by researcher Axel Adler Jr., dip into “blue zone” territory, indicating reduced selling pressure and possible accumulation comparable to major cycle lows following past crises, the trajectory of Bitcoin itself tells a more reserved story.

Bitcoin holds steady near the $100,000 mark, but indicators like the New UTXO 30-day SMA hover near 570,000, significantly lower than the 850,000 range seen late last year. This discrepancy suggests long-term holders are predominantly locking in their positions rather than actively moving coins, creating a tightening market and implying a potential supply-based catalyst if new demand materializes.

“If inflows remain at or surpass levels seen post-LUNA/Collapse, it strongly signals the launchpad of the next Bitcoin rally,” Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. stated.

However, there are risks embedded within this apparent accumulation phase. The Apparent Demand metric dipped negative recently, signifying that even nascent buyer activity is insufficient to counter selling pressure from miners and long-term holders, increasing the chance of a short-term correction, especially near critical resistance around the $110,000 level.

Furthermore, heightened activity by large players, as evidenced by their comprising 96% of exchange flows—a level historically linked to substantial price moves—could indicate strategic positioning ahead of potential volatility, adding to the complex risk assessment surrounding Bitcoin’s next potential leg up.

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Disclaimer: This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.