BTC Volatility Reverses Gains as US Nonfarm Payrolls Data Exceeds Expectations
Key Points
- Bitcoin reversed earlier gains following the release of stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data and a lower-than-anticipated unemployment rate.
- Analysis suggests the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates at its upcoming July meeting.
- On-chain analysis indicates BTC requires clearing final order book resistance to potentially continue its bullish trend.
BTC Flash Volatility Post-Jobs Data
Binance’s Bitcoin (BTC) price saw significant flash volatility Thursday morning as US employment data defied expectations by showing stronger job growth and lower unemployment than anticipated. Earlier gains that had pushed BTC towards $110,300 were quickly retraced.
According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC retraced significantly from its session high, though the pair still managed strength post-data print.
“Very Hot” US Jobs Data Challenges Rate-Cut Hopes
US nonfarm payrolls data painted a surprisingly robust picture of the labor market for June, with more jobs added than forecast and the unemployment rate registering a decline lower than many analysts predicted.
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter characterized the numbers as “”very hot,”” reinforcing the argument that the Federal Reserve now possesses additional data points to support delaying interest rate cuts.
Business consulting firm Blacknox, via its Material Indicators arm, took a firmer stance, stating that the unemployment drop “effectively takes a Fed Rate Cut in July off the table.”
Crypto asset manager Bitwise’s European Head of Research, Andre Dragosch, corroborated this view, noting that Fed Funds Futures now only price in two 25bps cuts remaining for the entire 2025 calendar year.
Contrast with Previous Private Sector Data
Interestingly, the official nonfarm data contrasted markedly with the advance private-sector nonfarm employment report published the day prior, which had boosted speculation regarding a potential July meeting cut.
Data aggregated by CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated that market expectations for a Fed policy shift prior to the September meeting remain unchanged.
Liquidity Assessment Post-Jobs Data
Resilient Market Structure
Analysis of market structure pointed towards resilience. Sources like Material Indicators offered a counterpoint narrative.
“The knee jerk reaction has knocked $BTC price down a bit, but IMO this is short term thinking. In the long run, a stronger economy will serve the market well.“
Monitoring resource CoinGlass confirmed that order-book liquidity levels on exchanges maintained healthy depth both above and below price.
On shorter timeframes, traders identified the $108,000 level as a crucial support zone. Analysis indicated a successful defense of this level was paramount.
“$BTC Attempting a breakout.
Any closes up around this $110K region would be good. You don’t want to see this deviate back below $108K again at this point.“
In sentiment, crypto trading channel Master of Crypto expressed confidence, stating: “As long as we stay above $108K, I’m aiming for $112K – maybe even $120K,” built partially on the analysis of market liquidity.
