Bitcoin Faces Further Downside Risk Unless It Holds Near $102,000

Bitcoin (BTC) remains vulnerable to further declines and must maintain support near the $102,000–$103,000 level to potentially reverse its recent losses, according to market analysis from crypto data provider Bitfinex.

Supportive Levels Needed

In a markets report published Tuesday, Bitfinex analysts noted that successfully holding above the $102,000–$103,000 range for any sustained period would indicate the crypto market is managing selling pressure effectively and could pave the way for a rebound.

High-Risk, High-Reward Opportunity

Despite the immediate downside risk stemming from ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, notably the recent escalation between Israel and Iran, some analysts view Bitcoin as a potentially high-reward opportunity if conditions improve.

Bitfinex analysts stated: “This environment now reflects a high-risk, high-reward opportunity for upside continuation if buyer confidence returns.”

Crypto trader Matthew Hyland echoed this view on X (formerly Twitter), stating: “Choppy price action but still in an uptrend for BTC.” However, hopes of revisiting the all-time high of $111,940 earlier in the week were dashed following the reported Israeli airstrikes on Iran.

CoinMarketCap data shows Bitcoin dropped approximately 2.8% in the hours following the conflict announcement, briefly falling from $106,042 to $103,053 before recovering some losses.

Resilience Despite Uncertainty

Notwithstanding broader market volatility, Bitcoin continued to attract investment inflows. According to Farside data, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded significant inflows throughout the week, marking their sixth consecutive positive day on June 16, with $412.2 million in new capital.

Less Severe Potential Correction Expected

Bitfinex analysts further suggested that even if Bitcoin trends lower in the coming periods, the potential magnitude of the drop is unlikely to match the drastic sell-offs seen in previous years. For example, Bitcoin fell roughly 20% within ten days in August of the previous year, dropping to around $53,991.

Historical data from CoinGlass indicates that July, starting the third quarter, has historically been the weakest monthly period for Bitcoin since 2013 in terms of average returns.

Analysts also pointed towards a potentially bullish pattern, noting that the current market conditions resemble prior “capitulation-driven setups,” which typically precede a reversal in aggressive selling once market confidence is restored.

Analyst Views Differ

While some analysts like Daan Crypto Trades suggest Bitcoin’s long-term trend remains intact and are monitoring support levels, others like Rekt Capital express skepticism, believing a correction akin to the 2022 crypto winter is “very likely” after the current bull market cycle.

EY strategist and trader Danny Marques, however, remains optimistic, stating, “The current move has significant room to expand structurally, momentum-wise, and psychologically,” noting Bitcoin hasn’t yet entered its “euphoric zone.”

Disclaimer

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.