Bitcoin Poised for July Performance Mirroring S&P 500

The market anticipates a breakout for Bitcoin in July, closely mirroring the long-standing trend of the S&P 500 index, where the month never ended red over the past ten years.

Key Points

• Bitcoin is tipped for its best July performance to date, despite starting “in the red.”
• July is statistically favorable for risk assets, with S&P 500 never being negative during these 10 years.
• BTC/USD saw maximum monthly losses below 10% in July during the trailing three years.
• Traders point to consolidation as a typical pre-move setup, downplaying initial volatility.
• Technical analysis hints at forming support/reverse patterns ahead of a potential new all-time high.

BTC Expected to Track Stock Market Performance

Bitcoin traders expect one of its best-performing months, possibly shadowing the US stock markets over the coming month. Analysts suggest Bitcoin’s trajectory is aligning with performance seen in equities.

According to trader Mikybull Crypto, July has established itself as exceptionally bullish, breaching the S&P 500 record for consecutive positive returns.

“IT HASN’T BEEN A RED JULY FOR THE PAST DECADES
GOOD FOR ALTS AND BITCOIN”

Historically, from July 2015 through to July 2024, the S&P 500 has never posted a negative return. Meanwhile for BTC/USD, maximum monthly losses over July in the trailing three years remained below 10%. This contrasts with warmer months, when gains have been less consistent.

Favorable Historical Context for Risk Assets

Traders anticipate that this favorable trend could be shorting for Bitcoin. As above-average losses were recorded during May and June 2021, May 2023, and June 2016, July’s trajectory appears more defined.

Fellow crypto trader Crypto Fella weighed in: “Bitcoin on the edge of breaking out and likely to match the S&P 500 for new ATHs in July.”

BTC Technical Position

Despite optimistic forecasts, Bitcoin began July with relatively flat performance, dipping below $106,500 before finding support.

Professional analysis points to consolidation patterns, with key bids observed around $106,200. This suggests deeper selling may be contained.

“With a new month and quarter, we often see a choppy start after which price chooses a direction later on. Give it some time to play out and watch for confirmations.”

The current setup sees several cryptocurrency analysts noting the formation of both Double Top and Double Bottom patterns within the $102,000 – $109,000 consolidating range.

Respected market commentator Trader Tardigrade, said “Bitcoin has formed a Double Top and a Double Bottom pattern within the consolidating range of $101k to $109k. The internal support/resistance could be tested again before breaking $109k range high.”

While July traditionally favors risk assets, Bitcoin observers caution against taking breaks at face value. Maximum projected losses still exist and highlight the need for continued monitoring and risk management.