Bitcoin
is on track to record its weakest monthly performance in a year amid a puzzling mix of consistent spot ETF inflows and signs of on-chain selling by whales and small wallets.
The dour price action appears confounding as the U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have continued to see strong uptake, registering $3.9 billion in net inflows in consecutive weeks. Besides, the corporate treasury adoption continues at brisk pace globally.
Whale selling
However, on-chain data sourced from Glassnode, particularly one key metric called the Accumulation Trend Score, which breaks down the behavior of different wallet cohorts, doesn’t paint a rosy picture.
The metric measures the relative strength of accumulation for each cohort based on the size of entities and the amount of BTC acquired over the last 15 days. A value closer to 1 suggests that participants in that cohort are accumulating coins, whereas a value closer to 0 signals distribution. Entities such as exchanges and miners are excluded from this calculation.
Currently, holders with balances between 10 and 10,000 BTC are in accumulation mode, though their behavior fluctuates between buying and selling, indicating they are more opportunistic traders rather than consistent buyers or sellers. Conversely, whales holding 10,000 BTC or more are leaning slightly toward distributing their holdings, while smaller holders are also net sellers.
Consolidation phase
Between January and April 2025, all cohorts were predominantly selling, but accumulation resumed once bitcoin bottomed in April near the $76,000 level. Now, the asset appears to have entered another consolidation phase.
In its latest “Week On-Chain” report, Glassnode suggests that profit-taking activity is beginning to slow. Realized profits have reached $650 billion in this cycle compared to $550 billion during the previous cycle. Glassnode attributes this trend to a market cooldown, further emphasizing the ongoing consolidation period.
