Bitcoin Derivatives Signal Growing Bearishness Despite Near-ATH Rally

Key Takeaways

• The Bitcoin futures premium fell to a 3-month low, despite the BTC price nearing its all-time high.
• BTC options metrics turned bearish, contradicting broader stock market resilience amid macroeconomic headwinds.

Balancing a near-$103,300 all-time high (ATH) with palpable bearishness in its derivatives markets, Bitcoin appears to be attracting divergent interpretations from the trading community.

Flirting with Bearishness Amidst High Prices

Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives indicators are signaling growing pessimism, particularly within leveraged trading circles, a development unusual for a coin trading just 8% below its ATH. While institutional interest remains robust, the broader trader sentiment seems increasingly jaded.

Weakening Futures Premium Points to Diminishing Near-Term Inflows

Monthly Bitcoin futures contracts typically trade at a premium to the spot price, reflecting the cost of carry for longer settlement periods. Under neutral conditions, this annualized premium generally stays between 5-15%.

Currently, the premium has deteriorated significantly. Trading below the neutral 5-15% threshold since mid-June, the metric recently dipped below 4%, the lowest level observed in over three months. This represents a further decline from the levels seen earlier in 2025, despite the BTC price testing the $102,400 mark.

Bullish Candle Flickers Out: Options Skew Turns Bearish

To gauge fear and expectation, analysts monitor the options skew – the difference in pricing between put (sell) and call (buy) options. A skew rising above 5% typically signals fear of a crash, while readings below -5% indicate bullishness.

The Bitcoin options skew is currently holding at 5%, the threshold often considered the borderline between neutral and bearish sentiment. Following a brief dip into positive, albeit weak (+5% is not strongly bullish), territory recently, the current level highlights a stark shift in trader expectations.

Macro Headwinds and US Market Resilience

The simultaneous occurrence of bearish crypto derivatives and resilience in broader markets suggests the current dip may be fundamentally tied to cryptocurrency market dynamics.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 US small-cap index held its 2,100 support level despite Middle Eastern tensions impacting sentiment, while persistent inflation and elevated interest rates (above 4.25%) in the US increased recessionary risks.

Strong Institutional Appetite Contrasts with Derivatives Market Weakness

The divergence between strong institutional demand and weak derivatives sentiment is particularly noteworthy. US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $5.14 billion in net inflows during the week ended June 18th. Concurrently, several large companies have significantly increased their Bitcoin reserves.

This contrast underscores a potential decoupling between institutional investors, who may view Bitcoin as a diversification tool or hedge asset, and more retail-focused traders who use leverage. The former seem less concerned by the recent correction than the latter.

The question remains whether this bearish momentum in derivatives markets will reverse. The longer BTC price lingers near the $100,000 psychological barrier, the greater the conviction among short-sellers and bears is likely to become.