Bitcoin’s trajectory toward new all-time highs shows few signs of reversal despite broader market concerns and user flow patterns, with analysts at crypto product provider 21Shares pointing to fundamental imbalances that support current bullish momentum.
Structural demand-supply Imbalance
21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena told Cointelegraph that the structural balance between surging demand and shrinking supply makes a prolonged market correction increasingly unlikely.
“The structural imbalance between surging demand and a rapidly vanishing supply base makes a prolonged correction increasingly unlikely,” Mena explained.
“There are far more positives than negatives right now,” he added.
All-Time Low Supply
Mena revealed that the Bitcoin (BTC) supply held on exchanges and over-the-counter desks remains at an all-time low, while demand continues to outpace availability.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin recently reached a new all-time high of $122,884 before stabilizing around $117,804 according to CoinMarketCap data.
Bitwise head of research André Dragosch noted declining retail interest, saying “Bitcoin is at new all-time highs, but retail is almost nowhere to be found.”
Structural Fundamentals Skewed
The crypto research strategist elaborated on the “particularly skewed” state of market fundamentals, suggesting institutional adoption via US-listed Bitcoin ETFs has already absorbed multiple years of supply.
Mena acknowledged two macro risks requiring monitoring, but does not expect these to trigger an immediate downturn.
If Trump’s proposed tariffs materialize more severely than markets anticipate, or if Fed signals delayed rate cuts trigger “risk assets broadly reprice lower,” we could see Bitcoin impacted,
Despite Bitcoin’s recent performance defying seasonal trends with the historically weakest quarter for crypto markets since 2013, 21Shares maintains that fundamentals remain supportive.
According to Mena’s analysis, “US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have already absorbed several multiples of the BTC that will be mined this year,” far exceeding typical annual supply cycles.
Bitwise head of research André Dragosch flagged an apparent disconnect between Bitcoin’s rally and concurrent whale activity, noting: “We are seeing whales bleeding market share selling during major tops… which is classic bullish distribution.”
Summer Rally Survives Seasonal Dip
Seasonal analysis from CoinGlass indicates the third quarter has historically averaged just a 6.32% return since 2013, making Bitcoin’s latest performance particularly remarkable.
“What’s truly remarkable is that Bitcoin is setting new all-time highs during the most illiquid, seasonally weak part of the year,”
Mena commented. “Historically, summer is when markets stagnate — trading activity decreases, volume dries up, and price action flattens.”
He added: “But this cycle is defying that norm.”
Amidst this bullish analysis, a notable departure from traditional market narratives surfaces — an unusual trend of Institutional accumulation coinciding with institutional profit-taking, creating an apparent divergence at critical support levels.
While technical indicators continue tracking upward momentum for major cryptos, analysts emphasize that this sustained appreciation reflects fundamental macroeconomic factors. The crypto serving as an inflation hedge faces continued institutional interest as traditional markets face monetary policy uncertainty.
This article does not contain investment advice. All investments and trading are subject to risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.
