Bitcoin just hit a new all-time high at $118,800, but analysts already predict that the top crypto has more gas in the tank.
Jeff Park, head of alpha strategies at Bitwise, says the market is flashing a rare trifecta that could tee up an even bigger breakout — if someone lights the fuse.
Open interest, implied volatility and liquidity is low, he wrote on X on Friday.
“All you need is a catalyst. No promises, but the probability is higher now than at any point this year,” he said.
In plain English: the market’s calm, unleveraged, and thin. That makes it ripe for a sudden and aggressive price move — especially in Bitcoin’s current price discovery phase.
His bullishness adds to overall optimism of the market.
Bitcoin’s price rally is driven by a powerful combination of favourable regulation coming out of Washington, unabating ETF flows, corporate Bitcoin buys, and bets on an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve later this year.
Rare trifecta
Low open interest means there aren’t many traders currently in leveraged positions, so there’s room for new longs to pile in if momentum builds.
Low implied volatility shows the market isn’t expecting big swings — which often comes right before they happen. It also means options are cheap, encouraging asymmetric bets.
Low liquidity in the order books makes it easier for price to move fast and far when buy pressure shows up.
Taken together, the setup is primed.
$140,000 by September
Indeed, many market watchers are expecting even further price appreciation.
“Bitcoin is entering new territory for price discovery, breaking a months-long range and surpassing its May peak with fresh highs over $116,000,” said Thomas Perfumo, global economist at Kraken.
Bitcoin traders have already placed nearly $900 million in bets that the asset will hit $140,000 by September — a 16% jump from current levels.
If history is any guide, that kind of move can happen in a matter of days.
