Bitcoin’s climb toward the $110,000 mark this week faces resistance from persistent macroeconomic headwinds and a strong correlation with traditional stock markets, according to analysts’ assessment from June 7th.

BTC saw a notable 3.5% increase, breaching the $108,500 benchmark. However, despite this upward momentum, professional trader sentiment remains cautious, as indicated by sluggish BTC derivatives metrics.

Analysts caution that a move above $110,000 may be contingent on the fading of recession fears. Current data points, including a sizeable premium in BTC futures markets and historically low long/short ratios favoring short positions (albeit still skewed long), suggest hesitancy in pushing prices significantly higher in the near term.

Recent price action hasn’t sparked significant leveraged buying pressure, a factor contributing to a relatively stable, foundational market. The prevailing sentiment, while not entirely pessimistic—given BTC is just 3% off its May 22 all-time high of nearly $112,000—reflects wary optimism.

However, a key obstacle lies in BTC’s robust correlation with U.S. equities. Presently, BTC shows an 82% correlation with the S&P 500 futures over the past four weeks. This high degree of co-movement, if sustained, implies BTC is functioning as a risk-on asset during periods of rising market sentiment, not an effective hedge against economic uncertainty.

BTC Could Struggle Against Broader Economic Headwinds

Historically mirroring markets during previous crises like the U.S. trade war, persistent concerns about U.S. fiscal stability and a potential debt default loom large. Fed commentators consistently highlight risks from a “hard landing” or recession, which directly impacts market psychology and traditionally correlates with BTC drawdowns.

Despite an OKX long-short ratio nearing 5x (longs being three times more prominent than shorts), this still falls short of extreme bullishness, considered typically above 20x. Crucially, none of the current indicators signal a pivot by large holders or market makers toward precipitous price declines.

If confidence in the historically dominant dollar and U.S. government debt erodes sufficiently, capital might shift away from Treasuries, potentially creating funding channels for alternative assets like BTC. While capturing a fraction of the S&P 500’s or gold’s market cap ($150k plus) would be a significant achievement, such a scenario presupposes a tangible loss of faith in fiat currency stability.

In the short term, the dollar’s reserve currency status remains an anchor for gold and equities valuations, thereby projecting downward pressure on BTC, especially if a recession confirmation materializes. Consequently, portfolio diversification strategies often favor gold in anticipation of dollar weakness, making the near-term path for BTC buoyant yet constrained by conflicting macro-economic signals.

Broad risks persist, anchored by the global trade war, persistent economic vulnerabilities signaling interest rate uncertainty, and the S&P 500’s resilience. These factors collectively create an environment where reaching $150k for BTC quickly necessitates an unlikely convergence of multiple large-scale macroeconomic tailwinds, the current primary driver remaining a cautious effort to capture incremental value above the psychologically significant $110,000 threshold.

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.