In a Truth Social post at 10:00 a.m. ET, Trump declared that the U.S. federal funds rate is “at least 3 points too high,” referring to a 300 basis point (3%) cut. He argued that delaying such a move imposes an annual burden of $360 billion on refinancing costs. Within 30 minutes, BTC began rising steadily as traders appeared to price in the short-term implications of such a dramatic policy shift, including the potential for renewed liquidity and risk-on sentiment.
In a comprehensive thread on X, macro analysts at The Kobeissi Letter provided a detailed breakdown of Trump’s claim. According to their analysis, total U.S. interest payments have already reached $1.2 trillion over the past 12 months—equivalent to $3.3 billion per day.
They noted that while Trump’s math assumes $360 billion in savings per percentage point across $36 trillion in national debt, only about $29 trillion is held publicly and would be affected by rate changes. Under more realistic assumptions, they estimate that a full 300 bps cut applied gradually could reduce interest expense by roughly $174 billion in the first year, potentially totaling $2.5 trillion over five years if 20% of the debt is refinanced annually.
Despite these potential savings, the report warned that the broader economic consequences of a 3% cut would be historic. No single Fed rate cut in modern history has exceeded 100 basis points — even during the 2008 crisis or the March 2020 emergency move. Implementing a 300 bps reduction outside of a recession, in an economy growing at 3.8% annually, would be unprecedented.
The Kobeissi Letter cautioned that such a move would likely reignite inflation above 5%, trigger a steep drop in the U.S. dollar — potentially exceeding 10% — and cause housing prices to surge due to a sharp decline in mortgage rates. Asset markets would likely rally in the short term, with gold forecasted to hit $5,000, oil above $80 per barrel, and the S&P 500 breaching 7,000. However, they emphasized that the long-term consequences would be destabilizing without major reductions in U.S. government spending.
For Bitcoin, the implications are clear: a sudden drop in interest rates would be viewed as monetary stimulus, likely accelerating capital inflows into hard assets and alternative stores of value like BTC. While analysts continue to debate the likelihood of such cuts, the market’s immediate reaction suggests investors are positioning for upside risk.
Technical Analysis Highlights
- The BTC price moved sharply within 30 minutes of Trump’s Truth Social post at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- Consolidation persisted earlier in the day, but buying volume increased significantly after Trump’s rate comments.
- Price tested resistance near $109,761, with higher lows forming above $108,500, indicating bullish structure.
- Bollinger Bands compressed to their tightest levels in this cycle, historically a signal of pending breakout.
- Institutional accumulation remains visible via volume clusters near support zones around $108,500–$108,600.
