Despite recent institutional inflows into Bitcoin via dedicated treasury vehicles, the cryptocurrency’s price has stalled near the $100,000 mark, with analysts attributing this to selling pressure from its original long-term holders.
“People are wondering why Bitcoin has been stuck at $100,000 [after breaking $60,000 in early May], despite the institutional FOMO,” said Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments.
OGs Under Fire: Long-Term Holder Selling
Edwards attributes the price consolidation to established long-term holders “dumping on Wall Street” since the launch of approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January 2024.
Pointing to cohort growth rates, Edwards noted that the six-month holder group has experienced substantial growth, representing the new wave of Bitcoin treasury companies.
“The amount of BTC acquired in the last two months by this six-month cohort has completely consumed all of the BTC unloaded by long-term holders (LTHs) over the last 1.5 years,” Edwards stated.
BTC Treasury Flywheel Gaining Momentum
Looking ahead, Edwards predicts these newer Bitcoin treasury companies will drive “a huge flywheel buying frenzy,” eventually pushing the ETF focus to the background.
“We have clearly entered the heat of that today, as many copy-cats have entered the market,” he commented.
Recent examples include new corporate investors like Cardone Capital, ProCap (Anthony Pompliano’s venture firm), Panther Metals, and Green Minerals entering the arena.
Short-Term Profit Taking Ahead of Trade Talks
In the near term, analysts note traders are taking profits ahead of the July 9 trade deadline.
“They’re hedging against a plunge in market prices in case trade talks go south,” said Jeff Mei, BTSE’s chief operating officer.
Meanwhile, Han Xu of HashKey Capital highlighted upcoming US macroeconomic data and policy updates, including trade deal progress, as key catalysts.
“…follow[ing] updates on trade deals ahead of the reciprocal tariff deadline, along with the progress of Trump’s budget bill…before a continuation of the bullish trend resumes,” cautioned Xu.
Range-Bound Movement Continues
Bitcoin remains largely range-bound since breaking $60,000 early May, oscillating between ~$102,000 and $110,000, occasionally testing resistance near $109,000.
Despite recent price consolidation, US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued drawing net inflows, exceeding $3.2 billion over the past two weeks.
