Bitcoin Indexes Show Mixed Signals Amid Price Volatility

Key Takeaways

• The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index reached its second-highest level in 2025, indicating sustained US investor interest.
• Binance’s retail inflow percentage hit a two-year high, marked by a sharp increase in 0–1 BTC exchange deposits.
• Bitcoin’s jump to $105,000 was primarily driven by short liquidations, not new long positions.

The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index surged to its second-highest mark in 2025 on Monday, signaling continued demand for Bitcoin available on Coinbase compared to Binance. This followed a period of green readings throughout most of June, reflecting persistent buying pressure from US investors.

Coinbase Premium Index performance often mirrors institutional flows, particularly from Bitcoin Spot ETFs which saw consistent inflows. A CryptoQuant study indicated a 0.27 correlation between prior-day ETF inflows and price increases, suggesting market optimism underpins the current buyer interest.

Simultaneously, CryptoQuant data reveals Binance’s retail inflow percentage has climbed to a two-year high alongside a Bitcoin price decline. On-chain analysis, highlighted by the Spent Output Value Bands (SOVB) metric, shows a significant spike in exchange inflows, especially deposits of 0 to 1 BTC.

On-chain analyst Maartunn commented: “These inflows suggest proactive behavior rather than passive accumulation. Deposits on Binance typically signal an intention to trade. While retail participants are often seen as lagging, this time they may have potentially anticipated market movements.”

The contrasting signals point to caution for buyers. While the Coinbase premium suggests potential undervaluation or strong institutional interest, the concurrent high Binance inflows may indicate retail profit-taking or selling pressure, adding potential downside risk.

Short-Covering Fuels Brief Bullish Move

Bitcoin prices briefly climbed to $105,000 on Monday following a low of approximately $98,300, representing a sharp 6.7% increase. This significant price action coincided with a 10% reduction in open interest (OI), indicating the rally was driven primarily by traders covering short positions rather than opening new long positions.

On June 23, $130 million in short positions were liquidated, suggesting many traders bought back Bitcoin to meet obligations as prices dipped, triggering the price recovery.

Current market conditions show a rising aggregated funding rate despite minimal growth in open interest. This indicates highly leveraged long positions are funding short positions, a scenario that could signal potential market exhaustion if sustained.

A sustained bull run scenario requires increasing buying volume alongside a recovery in open interest to validate new long positions. A retest of the $108,500 resistance level appears probable, with strong momentum supporting a continued upward trend.

However, a potential reversal could materialize if funding rates escalate further without corresponding OI growth. A price drop below $102,000 with decreasing volume might trigger a more significant correction.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.