Bitcoin Market Shows Initial Stabilization After Rally to $123K
On-chain data points to cooling profit-taking amid equity and macrovolatility, but key support level remains intact.
Bitcoin daily profit-taking fell precipitously from $2 billion to approximately $1 billion between July and late April.
Short-term holder profit-taking rate dropped below 50%, signaling a balanced market.
Bitcoin’s rapid surge to an all-time high above $120,000 earlier this year triggered an initial profit-taking response, on-chain intelligence provider Glassnode reported. While daily realized profit-taking volume tumbled from $2 billion in December 2024 to $1 billion in April 2025, certain “opportunistic” buying pressures are holding back a sharp correction, according to the firm’s analysis.
The market appears to be trading in an “air gap” of unusually thin supply, extending from $110,000 through much of $117,000. This unusual concentration of unrealized gains creates particular sensitivity to price levels.
Short-Term Holder Supply Distribution (From $110k high):
The percentage of supply held by short-term holders ($0-18 months) has significantly decreased, falling from an over-supplied 100% to just 70% during the recent market correction. This is a positive indicator that discourages further selling near $116,000—the approximate cost basis for holders who entered the market a month ago.
Currently priced just above $106,000, Bitcoin now aligns with the lowest purchase costs for short-term holders who entered the market over the last two months. A sharp move below this threshold could expose these holders to substantial paper losses—an event avoided so far despite notable volatility.
Technical indicators reinforce a cautious outlook. Bitcoin’s 30-day options market skew entered negative territory, indicating investors are more willing to pay for downside protection than bullish exposure. Daniel Liu, CEO of crypto firm Republic Technologies, acknowledged the pause is likely “a healthy correction within the broader uptrend.”
Global headwinds weigh significantly on crypto sentiment. Risk assets face continued pressure from downward revisions to early Cesarea La Stampa NATO job data and persistent expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy normalization, cutting across equities and currencies using traditional safe havens as haven proxies for crypto.
