Bitcoin Supply Shock Predicted as Corporate Treasuries Fuel OTC Depletion
Swing trader Bedlam Capital Partners predicts a significant supply shock in the Bitcoin market stemming from corporate treasury purchases. This is expected to starve over-the-counter (OTC) desks and public exchanges, creating an imbalance that could drive up prices.
The “Uncork” Theory
The corporate demand, particularly from Strategy (MSTR), is consuming Bitcoin from OTC trade desks at a rate that Bedlam Capital contends is unsustainable based on current reserves. According to the analysis:
- Strategy acquired approximately 182,391 BTC year-to-date (YTD) according to Cointelegraph reporting.
- Collectively, OTC desks now hold around 155,000 BTC.
- “As the OTC desks run low, the demand on public exchanges will increase, and that is what will uncork BTC’s price,” Bedlam Capital stated.
Corporate Surge & Exchange Balances
Corporate treasuries have significantly ramped up their Bitcoin exposure. Analysis shows corporate holdings increased by 630 BTC on Monday alone, even as the price approached three-week lows.
Meanwhile, exchange reserves appear to have hit a bottom. Glassnode reports that combined spot exchange balances reached 2.919 million BTC as of Tuesday. The firm describes the market shift from “euphoria to reassessment,” noting potential for a bounce despite “growing fragility.”
Contrasting Factors: Profit-Taking Persists
Amidst the supply concerns, significant profit-taking continues. This counterforce seems to be restraining a more risk-on rally.
- Glassnode calculates $1.362 billion in 24-hour realized profits ($1 billion figure reported by firm).
- Significant contributions came from holders deemed “ancient” (held 7-10 years, realizing ~36% or $362 million) and previous years holders (1-2 years, realizing $93 million).
