Bitcoin Soars Above 98% Profit Level, Eyes $200,000 by Year-End 2025
Key Takeaways:
- Historical prices exceeding 98% profitable signal bullish market sentiment but escalate near-term volatility and correction risk.
- BTC rally faces a structural test this month, with key technical breakouts needed to reach projected $200,000 target by late 2025.
Profitability Peaks Signal Snap Rally Potential
Historical data from on-chain analytics provider Glassnode indicates the market reached a record 98.7% of BTC above cost basis, exceeding the 98% profit signal observed in early 2024. This level occurs approximately once every 44 months based on the stock-to-flow model.
Alongside an elevated realized price ratio of 2.8, flagging short-term momentum, Glassnode analysts stated these conditions “reflect strong market confidence” yet “hint at heightened risk of profit-taking and demand exhaustion.”
Glassnode BTC Profit Ratio and Realized Price charts
Structural Breakout Targets $200,000
Multiple analysts are projecting a potential breakout above the five-year linear trendline (dating back to the 2020 COVID low) that would validate a “vertical acceleration” move towards higher targets.
Analysts like Stockmoney Lizards forecast Bitcoin nearing a new multi-year high by Q4 2025 if the price breaches $140,000 in the near term, with an eye towards $200,000 by year’s end.
Bitwise Investment links potential catalysts to a falling US Dollar Index, while Bernstein Research cites institutional demand fueling by spot Bitcoin ETFs and sovereign BTC bond structures as significant factors.
Bullish Narrative Evolves Despite Risk Profile
On the heels of strong post-halving performance in 2024, analysts often emphasize persistent demand from hedge funds, central banks, and liquidity flows from the past Bitcoin halving event.
Furthermore, increasing on-chain metrics point to developer activity supporting network functionality and escaping inflationary fee pressure, bolstering the “digital gold” thesis.
However, challenges persist amid fractional reserve practices in major spot ETFs and macroeconomic headwinds.
Disclaimer: This article is not investment advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve significant risk. Conduct your own research and consider seeking advice from qualified professionals.
