Bitcoin’s Potential $150,000 Peak by October as Halving Cycle Signals End of Bull Run
Key Points
- Bitcoin’s next major market peak could reach $150,000 by October, according to analysis of halving cycle patterns.
- On-chain data indicates new investors are active while long-term holders remain committed.
- Institutional demand continues to provide demand absorption capacity.
Bull Market Cycle Peaking in Three Months
Bitcoin may be entering the final stages of its current bull market cycle, with historical patterns following the April 2024 halving suggesting a peak could arrive by October, just three months away.
Analyst CryptoBullet identified a recurring “tick-tock” fractal pattern showing Bitcoin historically peaks approximately 518-546 days after a halving event.
With the April 15, 2024 halving as the benchmark, models indicate approximately 77 days remain before what would become the post-halving bull market peak.
Quotes from analysts anticipate BTC’s price could reach between $130,000-$150,000 by year-end, with some projecting a potential run towards $200,000.
Balanced Market Signals Support Price Rally
On-chain analytics suggest a balanced market dynamic despite recent price appreciation.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.’s metrics comparing new versus old investor activity shows young coins account for 30% of overall trading volume.
This level is significantly lower than peaks observed at previous local tops in March (64%) and December 2024 (72%), suggesting current new investor participation is more restrained.
“Old holders are still selling moderately: a coefficient of 0.3 means that the supply of three-year-old coins is still absorbing young demand without sharp fluctuations,” Adler reported.
“From the perspective of old wallet capitulation risk, the market looks balanced.”
Institutional Demand Provides Support
Strong institutional absorption has helped offset selling pressure in the late stages of this bull cycle.
Corporations and Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue accumulating Bitcoin at a steady pace, particularly evident in recent month-on-month increases.
This ongoing demand absorption capacity helps contain short-term selling pressure as the market approaches a potential cycle peak.
Disclaimer: This article is not intended to be investment advice. All investments involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
