Bitcoin’s Nearly Three-Month Rally May Be Experiencing a Slowdown
Cryptocurrency analysts indicate that the nearly three-month upward trend in Bitcoin may be fading, driven by eased buying pressure and increased profit-taking from traders, according to reports.
“For the first time in that uptrend, momentum has begun to fade,” observed Bitfinex analysts in their latest markets assessment.
Although Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to its year-to-date low of $73,273 on April 9, it has since climbed nearly 41%, reaching $107,380 as of the writing.
‘Vertical Acceleration’ May Be Over for Now
The analysts issue a warning that, contrary to further sharp gains, order flow data and onchain metrics appear to signal Bitcoin might be entering a consolidation phase or reaching a local peak.
They point to cooled spot volume, diminished buying pressure (taker buy) and intensified profit-taking, especially among those who entered positions around or below the crucial $80,000 mark.
Analysts: ETF Inflows Provide Support Amid Broader Uncertainties
The next significant price movement for Bitcoin is expected to depend heavily on macroeconomic factors and sustained institutional demand, particularly the inflows into approved exchange-traded products.
According to Farside data, US listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded inflows consecutively for thirteen trading days, totaling a cumulative net inflow of approximately $4.6 billion as of June 27.
Economist Timothy Peterson followed the latest record inflow (a reported $2.2 billion) last week, calling the event “massive” and projecting a high probability (est. 70%) of continued positive inflows this week, confident this generally contributes upward price pressure.
Market participants are also keeping a close eye on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming July 30 interest rate decision. Lower rates are typically considered利好因子 for the crypto sector. Currently, market assessments via the CME FedWatch Tool suggest a 19% probability the Fed will lower rates at this meeting.
Despite present short-term uncertainty, analysts concur that the overall market structure remains robust, as support levels remain tenacious on longer timeframes. They characterise the current market conditions as a transition phase.
Transition Phase? Long-Term Holders Weigh On Rally Sustainability
However, the narrative isn’t entirely devoid of bearish cues. Some analyses highlight the selling pressure from what is termed ‘Bitcoin OGs’—early adopters holding long-term positions.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, suggests this segment is actively selling, which has restrained upward momentum despite what would otherwise be expected increases driven by institutions and corporations.
He explained, “People are wondering why Bitcoin has been stuck at $100K so long, despite the institutional FOMO[1],” attributing this to holders who’ve previously been described as moving assets to Wall Street locations ahead of the initial ETF launches in early 2024.
