Key takeaways:
- Bitcoin recovers 10% from a six-week low as a bullish chart pattern signals potential price targets above $165,000.
- Exchange inflows reach a 10-year low, indicating long-term accumulation as supply shifts from exchanges to self-custody.
Bitcoin Reclaims Key Support Amid Bullish Technical Signals
Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the $108,200 ceiling on June 25, erasing much of its prior day’s gains but reclaiming a crucial support level. Reaching this level from recent lows around $98,400 demonstrates strong bulls defending critical price points and signals a tightening consolidation pattern on charts.
Bullish Pennant Pattern Points to $165,000 Target?
Following an all-time high above $112,000 short-lived earlier this year, BTC has generally traded between $100,000 and the previous high. Analyst Jelle recently tweeted that a recovery from near $100,000 has established a “bullish pennant pattern” – a technical formation representing a brief pause after strong moves – with potential upside to $165,200.
The pattern suggests accumulation at recent highs, but the pattern’s success rate averages around 54%, making it statistically less reliable than other indicators. Confirmation would likely come through a breakout above $110,000 on sustained action.
Counterpoint: Analysts See Potential Breakout Above $140,000
Separate Bitcoin advocate, Merlijn The Trader, echoes the bullish sentiment, labeling the current structure a “resistance building pattern” on his June 25 commentary. He anticipates “nothing stopping $BTC from flying to $140K+” should resistance levels above the recent $112,000 peak be breached.
Some forecasts reach even further, suggesting macroeconomic tailwinds—such as potential tax policy shifts—could underpin price against major BTC holders, though these speculative projections rank among the highest observed since bull runs began.
Exchange Flows Dip to Decade-Low, Hinting at Shift to Long-Term Holding
Bitcoin flow data indicates institutional and retail accumulation on exchanges continues to shrink dramatically. Crypto analytics provider CryptoQuant reports BTC average daily net flow1 on exchanges reached an all-time low over the June 25 trading period, measuring in the low 40,000 BTC range, a record low for the metric.
“The average volume of flows (Inflow + Outflow) on centralized exchanges has decreased to 40,000 BTC per day – this is the lowest figure in the past 10 years.” – Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr.
Adler’s assessment points toward investors transferring Bitcoin holdings to personal wallets, interpreted as a statement of confidence in BTC as a long-term store of value. Glassnode data aligns with this, showing overall BTC reserves accumulated on major exchanges as low as 2.92 million BTC as of June 25, levels last recorded dating back over six years.
This indicates a significant transfer of supply from liquid exchange pools into colder storage. The potential market impact includes reduced BTC available for day trading and spot liquidity, often cited as a catalyst for sustained bull markets and higher price levels in the intermediate-term view.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
