Bears Bear Down on US, Hope for Bitcoin Under Trump Inflation-Busting Tax Plan
Bitcoin (BTC) could explode past $230K in 2025, according to Bitwise’s research team. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed “One Big Beautiful Bill (Bill Act)” fiscal plan, which aims to cut taxes dramatically, is seen by analysts as setting the stage for an environment where Bitcoin – championed by the president-elect – could reposition itself as a hedge against sovereign debt risk.
Debt Mount, Risk Rises
The fiscal outlook for the United States looks increasingly precarious, according to Bitwise analysts. The Congressional Budget Office projects that net interest payments from the national debt will reach astronomical $3 trillion by 2030, fueling fears of potential sovereign default.
In their latest Bitcoin market note projecting the cryptocurrency could rise toward $200,000 and potentially reach a fair-value estimate of $230,000 by year’s end, Dragosch and Tripathi cited the mushrooming debt and dedicated spending exceeding revenue as key headwinds for the dollar and assets like US Treasuries. They further noted the proposed massive spending component included in Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” would escalate the country’s financial risk profile dramatically.
“Bitcoin’s scarcity and resilience position it uniquely to benefit from both fiscal instability and improving market sentiment,” Bitwise analysts indicated. “If these trends hold, the top crypto could shatter price expectations by year-end.”
Inflation Fears, Fiat Fragility
The backdrop also includes concerns over the Federal Reserve’s likely aggressive interest rate cuts in response to potential recessionary pressures, adding to the value destruction of fiat currencies. This dynamic could further diminish confidence in traditional safe havens and bolster alternative assets.
“Despite a short-lived dip to $100K during the Musk-Trump spat, BTC quickly rebounded on short liquidations,” wrote Bitwise, adding: “The [bullish] backdrop remains constructive.”
To underscore long-term bullishness, Stockmoney Lizards initiated margin calls following the Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT) signal, highlighting potential upside to “$250k+ [in] 2025”. Bitcoin’s OTT indicator recently activated for the first time since mid-2024.
The analysis comes alongside other bullish signals, including recent pronouncements from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, who anticipates $200K BTC by the end of 2025 “driven by a supply shock from surging institutional demand,” and from power-law models predicting BTC hitting $200,000 by the year’s end.
This article is not investment advice or a recommendation to trade or invest. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is speculative in nature. Readers should independently assess whether any trading or investment activities are suitable for them.
