Forget the summer doldrums — Bitwise says Bitcoin’s price could break out in July.
In a report released Tuesday, the crypto asset manager said three powerful drivers can fuel a 30% rally this month.
Firstly, Bitcoin tends to rally after geopolitical scares like the recent conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.
Secondly, institutions are buying more coins than miners can supply. In addition, a global wave of rate cuts is flushing markets with liquidity.
“These tailwinds set a constructive backdrop for Bitcoin and cryptoassets heading into July,” Bitwise analysts André Dragosch and Ayush Tripathi wrote.
The bullishness adds to a growing bullishness among analysts who see Bitcoin reach record highs this month.
Chances of Bitcoin reaching an all-time high before August have surged to 63% on Polymarket.
Punters on the prediction market platform give the cryptocurrency an 81% chance of the price breaking another record before October.
Post-crisis rallies
History suggests Bitcoin rebounds hard after geopolitical shocks, Bitwise wrote.
In the 50 days following 20 global pullbacks — from wars to macro panics — Bitcoin has rallied an average of 31%.
If that pattern holds, Bitcoin could soon have a price tag of about $136,000.
In a note to investors on June 30, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, and the firm’s head of research Ryan Rasmussen maintained the company’s $200,000 price tag for 2025 — a target shared by $785 billion wealth manager Bernstein, and UK bank Standard Chartered.
There’s already evidence that the script is playing out.
After tensions flared between Israel and Iran on June 13, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $99,000. But the top cryptocurrency quickly rebounded and now trades above $107,000.
Institutions stack
Meanwhile, institutions aren’t waiting for calmer headlines.
Public companies and exchange-traded funds are soaking up more Bitcoin than miners are producing. This has all the makings of a supply shock, and a subsequent price rally, says Bitwise.
Over the past six months, the number of public companies holding Bitcoin has nearly doubled. Take Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which now holds more than 597,000 Bitcoin worth about $63 billion.
There’s also BlackRock’s IBIT, accounting for 55% of the gargantuan Bitcoin ETF market. Larry Fink’s firm holds $75 billion in Bitcoin.
With these players snapping up supply faster than it can be replenished, the pressure is building.
Finally, Bitwise points to a flood of easy money.
Over the past year, G20 central banks have cut interest rates more than 50 times, according to Bitwise.
With one Federal Reserve governor nudging the institutions to slash rates later this year, the backdrop is turning risk-on — and crypto historically loves liquidity.
“This could be one of the key reasons why Bitcoin remains so resilient despite record economic policy uncertainty and rising geopolitical risks.”
To be sure, Bitcoin remains prone to sharp moves in either direction.
But with positive ETF flows, macro indicators aligning, and historical data pointing toward a rebound, Bitwise sees the makings of a July breakout.
