BTC Price Poised for $117K Tally: On-Chain Data Shows Breakout Potential
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis and market value realized (MVRV) metrics suggest BTC could reach $117,000
- On-chain indicators point toward a potential breakout above $117,000
- $109,000-$110,000 represents the key technical resistance level
BTC Trading in Consolidation Pattern
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered a well-defined trading range since January, oscillating between $78,000 and $110,000 according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView data.
A key technical support has been Glassnode’s Short-Term Holder (STH) cost basis metric measuring prices paid by holders who acquired Bitcoin within the last 155 days. This indicator suggests $117,000 as the immediate price target.
Technical Levels and Analyst Predictions
Following its May test of $112,000—the then-upper band of the STH cost basis—analysts are monitoring current price action for signs of a continuation or exceedance pattern.
“This level [~$117K] can be seen as the upper band of the short-term price action.” – Glassnode analysis
The Market Value Realized (MVRV) ratio indicates further upside potential, with the upper band approximately at $123,000 signaling that current price levels still leave room for expansion before reaching extreme valuation.
Breakout Dynamics
Several technical analysis perspectives point to key breakout levels:
- $109,000-110,000: Rekt Capital identifies this as the critical daily downtrend line that requires a closing breach for confirmed breakout
- $110,000: Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) cites this as the upper boundary of a bull flag pattern with a $130,000 price target
- $117,113: The precise upper cost basis level flagged by Glassnode
Technical analysts observe that sustained breaks above these resistance levels could trigger momentum toward higher territory.
Image: Bitcoin short-term cost basis bands. Source: Glassnode
Image: Bitcoin MVRV extreme deviation pricing bands. Source: Glassnode
Risk Considerations
While technical indicators suggest upside potential, successful breakouts typically require sustained movement above these resistance levels rather than temporary excursions.
Traders are advised to monitor key support levels as breakouts confirm and to consider the context of Bitcoin’s ongoing bull market cycle (now entering its sixth month).
