Ethereum Technical Breakout Signals Point to $3,100-$3,600 Rally Target

Cointelegraph • Updated June 9, 2025

Key takeaways

Ethereum’s open interest in futures markets has surged 40% in the last 30 days, reaching $36 billion.
Spot ETH ETFs recorded their fourth consecutive week of inflows, with total holdings reaching 3.77 million ETH.
Technical indicators suggest a potential price rally toward $3,100 to $3,600 based on the Gaussian channel crossover.
Institutional interest appears to be growing amid consolidation, with BlackRock reportedly adding significant ETH positions.

Ethereum (ETH) has consolidated between $2,300 and $2,800 for the past 30 days, but technical signals suggest the sideways phase may be ending. The 4-hour chart shows ETH maintaining support near the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), while forming a hidden bullish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI).

A hidden bullish divergence occurs when the price forms higher lows while indicators like RSI form lower lows, signaling a potential trend reversal. This formation has drawn trader attention amid price consolidation.

Ethereum's hidden bullish divergence pattern on 4-hour timeframe — Ethereum’s hidden bullish divergence on 4-hour timeframe indicates potential bullish reversal. Source: TradingView

Ethereum futures open interest data from CoinGlass shows a significant increase of 40% over the last 30 days, reaching $36 billion. This growing trader confidence during consolidation often precedes breakouts.

43-day moving average chart of Ethereum futures open interest — Ethereum futures open interest growth correlates with typical pre-breakout consolidation patterns.

Spot ETH ETFs reach new heights amid institutional interest

Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) marked their fourth consecutive week of net inflows, adding 97,800 ETH and pushing total holdings to 3.77 million ETH. Growing institutional interest has been evident, particularly from investment giant BlackRock.

Glassnode chart showing ETH holdings in spot ETFs — Ethereum holdings growth in US spot ETFs continues to demonstrate institutional adoption.

BlackRock, which holds approximately 1.5 million ETH (~$2.71 billion in value), has reportedly bought $500 million worth of Ether over the past 10 days. Despite the price being 48% below its all-time high, the asset manager continues to build positions.

A broader trend of institutional conviction is evident: Ether-based investment products led inflows among crypto exchange-traded products last week, attracting $296 million. This represents the seventh straight week of inflows, the longest stretch since President Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory.

ETH crosses Gaussian channel midline amid rally expectations

Ethereum has returned to the midline of the Gaussian channel indicator, a technical analysis tool that plots price movements within a dynamically adjusting range based on standard deviation. While consolidation has occurred, the current price action above this central line aligns with historical precedents where ETH subsequently experienced significant rallies.

Historical performance suggestsETH has shown strong upward momentum following midline crossovers: in 2023, the asset price surged 93% to $4,000 after crossing the indicator, while it increased by an extraordinary 1,820% in 2020 following a similar pattern.

Gaussian Channel analysis of Ethereum's historical price movements — Gaussian channel analysis shows historical correlations between midline crossings and price surges.

Technical analysts are watching closely as ETH stabilizes around the $2,570 mark. Should momentum sustain, price forecasts suggest a target of $3,100 to $3,600, supported by the historical accuracy of this technical indicator in forecasting short-term price movements.

This article does not contain investment advice. Every investment carries risk. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.