Bitcoin: Risks deeper pullback
Bitcoin’s (BTC) multi-month rally appears to have hit a significant wall, with a confluence of bearish signals emerging across both weekly and daily charts.
The weekly candlestick chart shows that bulls have failed to establish a foothold above the macro trendline connecting the 2017 and 2021 bull market highs. This failed breakout is supported by weakening momentum, as the MACD histogram, though still positive, is significantly lower than its peak in December 2024 when the macro trendline was first tested.
The bearish sentiment is further reinforced by the 14-week RSI, which has broken its uptrend line from the March lows while continuing to print a series of lower highs since March 2024.
On a shorter-term daily timeframe, the shift in momentum is even more pronounced. The three-line break chart, a tool designed to filter out minor noise and confirm trend changes, has printed three straight red bricks (bars), a classic bearish reversal signal, confirming that sellers have seized control.
The combination of these signals – a failed long-term breakout, weakening momentum, and a confirmed short-term reversal – indicates that a deeper correction is now the path of least resistance and prices could take out the immediate support at $11,965, the former high hit in May, for a test of dip demand at $100,000.
Prices need to overcome $122,056 to invalidate the bearish setup.
- Resistance: $120,000, $122,056, $123,181.
- Support: $111,965, $112,301 (the 50-day SMA), $100,000.
XRP: Challenging downtrend line
While XRP
is attempting to break out of the downtrend line, which represents the recent correction, the overwhelming momentum from the moving averages across both the hourly and daily timeframes suggests that a sustained breakout may not occur immediately.
On the daily timeframe, the price has seen a modest bounce, but this rally is capped by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which is acting as a key resistance. This corrective move is happening against a bearish backdrop, with both the 5 and 10-day simple moving averages (SMAs) continuing to trend south, confirming the downward bias. Further, the 50-, 100-, and 200-hour SMAs are stacked in a bearish configuration, all trending south, a classic technical signal of a strong downtrend.
Should we close above $3.00, the focus would shift to the lower high of $3.33 registered on July 28.
- Resistance: $3.33, $3.65, $4.00.
- Support: $2.72, $2.65, $2.58.
Ether: Bearish outside week
Ether fell nearly 10% last week, forming a large bearish outside week candle, a significant bearish pattern, which indicates that sellers are looking to regain control.
This sentiment is reinforced on the daily timeframe. The daily candlestick chart shows that the 5- and 10-day SMAs have executed a bearish cross, confirming a break in the short-term uptrend.
So, while the price has seen a modest bounce since Sunday, its strength is questionable. This is further substantiated by the daily three-line break chart, which has printed two consecutive red bricks – a decisive bearish signal that confirms the trend has reversed to the downside.
The combination of these long-term and short-term charts suggests that the path of least resistance is now lower.
- Resistance: $3,941, $4,000, $4,100.
- Support: $3,355, $3,000, $2,879.
Solana: Golden cross
Solana’s recent pullback appears to be meeting a critical test, with bulls successfully defending a key support level over the past 24 hours. The price has bounced from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its recent rally, a level often watched by traders as a strong potential price floor in an uptrend.
Meanwhile, a major long-term signal is on the horizon: the 50- and 200-day SMAs are nearing a “golden cross.” While this is a lagging indicator, a successful cross would be a powerful long-term bullish signal, confirming a major shift in momentum and potentially setting the stage for a new, sustained uptrend.
For traders, the coming days are critical, with the 61.8% Fib level needing to hold strong as support while the impending golden cross provides a bullish long-term tailwind. Also note that despite the defense of the Fib level, the short-term trend remains bearish, with the 5- and 10-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) continuing to trend lower.
- Resistance: $175, $187, $200.
- Support: $156, $145, $126.
