Arthur Hayes Warns of Potential Bitcoin Blow-off to $100,000 Amid Macroeconomic Headwinds
Maelstrom Fund chief investment officer Arthur Hayes has cautioned that escalating macroeconomic pressures could trigger a significant Bitcoin pullback, with potential losses into the $100,000 territory, actions he claims to have already taken by exiting positions.
Tying Pullback to Economic Fragility Cues
Speaking in response to heightened risk aversion signs, Hayes attributed the recent crypto pullback to a confluence of factors including the disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls report, which showed a mere 73,000 new jobs added in the US in July, indicating economic fragility. He further warned of stagnant credit growth hindering nominal GDP expansion.
Taking Profits: Recent Sales by Hayes
Hayes’ remarks followed an analysis from blockchain data provider Lookonchain highlighting his recent selling activities. According to data, Hayes’ trading entity offloaded approximately $8.32 million worth of ETH, $4.62 million of Ethena (ENA), and $414,700 worth of the meme coin PEPE.
Arkham Intelligence data reveals that Hayes’ wallet has accumulated $28.3 million worth of various tokens, with $22.95 million currently held in the USDC stablecoin.
Wider Macroeconomic Threats to Risk Assets
The prevailing concerns behind Hayes’ comments reflect broader anxieties about macroeconomic headwinds potentially stifling momentum in ‘risk-on’ crypto assets. Conditions like tight credit, looming or renewed tariff fears, and a softening job market could test investor confidence and signal the need for portfolio realignment, potentially precipitating a correction for major cryptocurrencies.
Factual data confirms Bitcoin’s decline, falling over 7.7% from its $123,000 all-time high on July 14, while theETH has retreated 12.5% since surpassing the $3,900 mark on July 28 (CoinGecko). A $100,000 BTC level constitutes an approximate 18.7% correction from recent highs.
The Debate: Old vs. New Market Cycles
Despite Hayes’ forecast and ongoing market consolidation, many industry analysts posit that the era of substantial double-digit pullbacks for Bitcoin has passed. Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas noted Bitcoin’s significantly reduced volatility and absence of severe drawdowns since BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application in June 2023.
Analysts like Mitchell Askew of Blockware Solutions bolster this view, stating: “The days of parabolic bull markets and devastating bear markets are over.” These perspectives dismiss the current correction as an anomaly compared to earlier market cycles.
Related: Ray Dalio Sells Final Bridgewater Stake After Predicting Debt Collapse
Related: Crypto Traders ‘Fool Themselves’ With Price Predictions: Peter Brandt
