Surprise NYC Mayoral Winner Predicted by Blockchain-Based Platform Polymarket
NEW YORK | June 25, 2025
Zohran Mamdani secured a surprise victory in the Democratic mayoral primary for New York City Tuesday. While conventional polls initially favored former Governor Andrew Cuomo, the outcome was accurately anticipated by the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket, which projected a near-certain win for Mamdani hours before results were confirmed.
The Early Call
Polymarket’s prediction followed the release of an Emerson College poll Monday morning. The poll indicated Mamdani’s strength under New York City’s ranked-choice voting system, causing sentiment in the decentralized market to reverse rapidly. The platform’s algorithm, reflecting aggregated bets from market participants, concluded Mamdani had a 99% chance of winning.
Traders adjusted their positions significantly. One notable bet was placed by a Polymarket user known as “GayPride,” who wagered $132,926 on Mamdani’s victory at 49.2% odds. This bet returned approximately $268,000, highlighting the potential returns in decentralized prediction markets.
Reaction and Validation
Polymarket wasn’t the only platform reacting swiftly. Competitor Kalshi also shifted dramatically, reflecting Mamdani’s increasing viability. On Kalshi, which utilizes conventional trading infrastructure, Cuomo’s odds dropped precipitously while Mamdani’s surged within hours of the Emerson poll’s release.
By election morning, both platforms converged on similar projections for Mamdani’s victory, providing an early signal unavailable through traditional polling methods.
Past Performance and Market Impact
The correct prediction marks the second time in as many months that Polymarket’s algorithm has demonstrated superior accuracy. Last year, the platform correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory in the U.S. presidential election.
“Prediction markets once again show they can break the news faster than media outlets and predict elections better than conventional polls and political experts,” said Alex Solleiro of Myriad Markets.
Funding Validates Track Record
Premarket’s impressive performance has followed by news of a substantial funding round. The company reportedly closed a $200 million round at a valuation exceeding $1 billion. The round is led by Founders Fund, the investment vehicle co-founded by tech luminary Peter Thiel.
This investment is significant as it underscores growing institutional confidence in blockchain-powered prediction markets. Founders Fund has backing from some of the most transformative companies in the tech era, including Palantir, Meta, and OpenAI.
The success of Polymarket’s post-election funding follows the platform’s proven track record; last year marked the sixth consecutive election in which Polymarket accurately forecasted results.
