MARKET UPDATE
Market Overview
The overall cryptocurrency market experienced a slight decline of approximately 3% over the past week, keeping potential panic in check but remaining watchful.
Bitcoin maintained relative stability despite a recent 3.5% drop below $114,000. It showed minimal movement (+2%) in the last seven days, contrasting sharply with meme coins.
Post-week session lows near $114,000 are testing key short-term support levels and could signal deeper corrections if sustained. A crucial triangle pattern, established since last month, offers significant resistance starting around $118,900.
Technical indicators present mixed signals for Bitcoin:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 indicates healthy bullish momentum, though indicates selling pressure is increasing.
- The Average Directional Index (ADX) of 28 confirms trend strength but suggests a weakening compared to previous weeks.
- The 50-day Exponential Moving Average continues to track above the 200-day EMA, maintaining a long-term bullish posture.
Beyond volatility, the broader market faces scrutiny:
- Analysts are monitoring U.S. import tariffs for their potential impact on the dollar and inflation.
- The Federal Reserve’s maintained interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% has created a cautious environment that disadvantages high-beta assets like certain cryptos.
Key Levels
- **Immediate Support:** $110,000 (psychological level)
- **Strong Resistance:** $118,859 (Fibonacci retracement) & $122,000 (ATH area)
Opinion polls via prediction markets, such as Myriad, place odds for BTC hitting $125K by +55%, a slight decrease from recent peaks, suggesting fading bullishness despite overall bullish technical charts.
XRP: Continuing Sideways Motion
XRP continued its sideways drift with a 6.08% decline to $3.04, hindered by a previous inability to breach recent trading ranges despite positive regulatory news.
Technical readings provide contrasting signals:
- XRP’s RSI of 61 suggests overweighting but neutral conviction.
- An ADX reading of 21 confirms range-bound movement.
- MA configuration signals a fragile bullish case.
Dogecoin: Meme Coin Weakness
Meme coin Dogecoin saw its sharpest drop of 8% to $0.20, emphasizing their vulnerability in the current market, surpassing losses among top coins.
Bearish signals were widespread for DOGE:
- An RSI of 50 points neutrality but reflects waning momentum.
- An ADX of 16 significantly belies establishment of new trends.
- Tight support zones near $0.20-$0.18 warrant cautious interpretation as potential false signals are a possibility.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.