Key Takeaways

• Ethereum’s (ETH) perpetual futures volume recently surpassed Bitcoin’s, indicating a major shift in trading focus to altcoins.
• A bearish RSI divergence signals potential short-term exhaustion despite bullish momentum.
• Resistance near $4,500 on the realized price bands and trader expectations of another large upside move highlight conflicting narratives.

ETH Faces $4,000 Resistance

Ethereum (ETH) has been trading below the $4,000 resistance level since December 2025, with traders debating its near-term prospects. Despite the difficulty in breaching this psychological barrier, the immediate bullish target watches the +1σ active realized price band near $4,500. This metric represents the average cost basis for ETH currently actively traded on the network.

Historical data from Glassnode shows this band acted as a significant price ceiling during the March 2024 highs and past cycles. A sustained breakout above $4,500 could trigger rapid gains but also carries risks of overheating and volatility.

Bullish Momentum Mounts

Data from Cointelegraph indicates ETH perpetual futures have overtaken Bitcoin in volume dominance, marking the “largest ever” recorded shift in trading focus to Ethereum derivative markets.

This renewed interest is also apparent in trader sentiment, with pseudonymous strategist Byzantine General revising his short-term view:

“I think I’m wrong about ETH getting some short-term downside. It’s too strong, refuses to print any significant correction… It’s looking like a just f***ing send it moment.”

Ethics liquidation data further supports this narrative, highlighting a dense cluster of short positions stacked just above $4,000. A clean move above this region could trigger significant liquidation losses, potentially providing fuel for a rally upward.

Bearish Divergences Raise Short-Term Caution

Despite strong bullish arguments, technical indicators offer contrasting signals. Both the four-hour and daily charts show new local highs for ETH, coinciding with a failure of the relative strength index (RSI) to reach confirming higher levels, creating bearish divergence.

Ethereum crossed above the crucial $3,500 barrier months ago, yet a persistent bearish divergence has yielded consistently weaker momentum peaks. Failure to decisively clear the $4,000-$4,500 range with elevated volume may prompt a short-term correction.

If a correction materializes, the immediate lower timeframe support ranges near $3,700 contain a narrow fair value gap. However, if bears maintain pressure, ETH could test its long-term support structure between $3,200 and $3,300.