Key Takeaways:
- Ethereum’s price is at risk of falling 25% toward $1,600 after failing to break above a key multi-year resistance level.
- A major whale recently moved approximately $237 million worth of ETH to exchanges, aligning with five consecutive days of increased ETH inflows into Binance.
- On-chain analysis suggests large holders are redistributing or selling ETH, contributing to bearish pressure.
Ethereum (ETH) is showing signs of vulnerability following a break below a crucial multi-year support. This occurs alongside significant whale activity moving hundreds of millions of dollars worth of ETH to exchanges. These factors point to potential downside.
Technical Breakdown Points $1,600 Target
On a two-week chart, Ether has broken below the lower trendline of a symmetrical triangle formation that held since mid-2022.
An earlier bounce near the March $1,600 low (200-period EMA) failed to sustain, with a subsequent recovery stalling around $2,545 (50-period EMA), an area aligning with the triangle’s lower trendline.
This $2,545 confluence marks a significant resistance point; ETN bulls have repeatedly failed to breach it, including in June.
Bearish signals also include Ethereum’s relative strength index (RSI), which remains below a multi-year descending trendline. Despite recent price attempts higher, the RSI has failed to sustain gains above resistance, indicating weakening bullish momentum and pointing towards continued downside.
If the $2,545/EMA resistance holds, ETH could return towards its $1,600 200-period support level, representing a potential 25% slide from current levels.
ETH Whale Action amid Stalled Recovery
Ethereum on-chain data highlights intensified selling risk.
According to Etherscan, around mid-June, two whale addresses (0x14e4 and 0x26Bb) unstaked and withdrew 95,920 ETH (approximately $237 million).
Of this amount, 62,289 ETH ($154 million) has been deposited into exchanges including HTX, Bybit, and OKX within the last 20 days. The remaining 33,631 ETH ($83 million) remains in the whale’s address, potentially for future sale.
Lookonchain data analysis identifies a single, likely centralized entity controlling these two wallets.
Consecutive Binance Inflows Signal Continued Interest
The whale’s liquidation closely follows a CryptoQuant report highlighting sustained inflows into Binance, the world’s largest exchange by volume.
Ethereum inflows into Binance have remained steady for five consecutive days, suggesting persistent investor interest.
Bearish On-Chain Shifting Balance
Further bearishness emerges from shifts in wallet concentration.
Glassnode data shows a sharp decline in ETH held by addresses controlling between 10,000-100,000 ETH since mid-May.
Meanwhile, addresses holding 1,000-10,000 ETH have seen their collective holdings rise. This distribution suggests large holders are breaking up their positions into smaller wallets, some of which may be preparing for offloading, feeding into ETH’s negative momentum.
Analyst Views: Rally Potential Despite Current Headwinds
The prevailing bearish technical picture contrasts with an outlook that some analysts believe points to an inevitable recovery.
Analyst Agela suggests Ether’s immediate recovery is only a “matter of time,” contingent on breaking the key weekly RSI resistance.
“Since Q1 2024, ETH weekly RSI has made lower lows, and this is why ETH hasn’t been able to reclaim $4,000.”
Several analysts further predict a potential rally toward significantly higher levels, driven by technical indicators and sustained capital inflows into Ethereum-focused investment products. However, these projections are yet to be teste against current bearish fundamentals.
Disclaimer: This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
