June’s mid-month economic data releases pointed to mixed signs from the U.S. labor market, offering investors conflicting messages as the summer heat typically inflates workforce volatility.
June ADP Employment Report: Private Sector Payrolls Decline
The ADP Research Institute reported a sharp 33,000 drop in private sector payroll jobs for June—the first negative print since March 2023 and slightly below the average seen since March 2025. Consensus forecasts had expected 100,000 new jobs.
This marked a significant contrast to the upcoming Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) job report scheduled for release the following Thursday.
Jobless Claims: Smother Than Expected, Still Elevated
Initial claims for state unemployment programs clocked in at a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ending June 28, exceeding analyst expectations by 7,000 but registering the lowest level since mid-May. This 30,000 decrease from the prior week was the steepest drop in six weeks.
Economists noted that while the headline print softened, claims remain significantly higher than the same period last year. Summer typically sees high seasonality in unemployment filings.
BLS Employment Report Exceeds Expectations
The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday reported a robust gain of 147,000 jobs in June, well above the 110,000 anticipated and the 12-month average of 146,000 jobs. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, though reported job gains alone fell short of the 161,000 projected.
Sectors leading growth included state/local government (+73,000) and healthcare (+39,000), with overall private sector job creation slowing modestly to 74,000.
Assessing the Head-to-Head
The BLS figure appears “much higher than the figure reported by ADP,” according to the source publication. The reports, however, are acknowledged for their methodological differences and differing sample cutoffs, resulting in the frequent divergence of their headline numbers.
“The data discrepancies aren’t unusual,” added Montecristo. “[T]hey have different data reporting cutoffs and methodologies.” In essence, interpreting the latest reports requires careful consideration of the underlying data sources and seasonal factors.
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