Bitcoin Sidesteps Amidst Lackluster Catalysts, Eyes Trade War Volatility

Market participants identified Bitcoin’s sluggishness on June 19 amid analysis highlighting a dearth of volatility catalysts, primarily due to a US public holiday keeping stock markets closed and the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance.

Key Developments

• Bitcoin remains contained within a narrow trading range, failing to breach the $105,000 level.
• Stalemate in US risk assets is attributed to the Juneteenth holiday and a “wait-and-see” Fed policy following the June 18 FOMC meeting.
• Upcoming deadlines in the ongoing US-China and EU-US trade conflicts are positioned as likely volatility drivers for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView reveals that Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has largely remained stationary, struggling to hold support near $105,000. The combination of the US holiday, muted Fed policy expectations, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty contributed to the sideways price action.

Federal Reserve officials reinforced their reluctance for imminent action, stating pending further clarity on inflation. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool still indicates a significant likelihood of a rate cut occurring in September’s FOMC meeting.

July, August Bring New Crypto Downside Risks

Trading firm QCP Capital highlighted the upcoming US-China and EU-US trade war deadlines as probable sources of volatility for crypto assets.

According to QCP, “Negotiations remain stagnant,” making markets “less reactive to incremental tariff headlines.” Key dates identified include:

• July 14: EU scheduled to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods.
• August 12: Expiration of the China tariff pause.

The firm noted, “These upcoming dates could inject episodic downside volatility into risk assets.” However, it stressed “a stable outcome” in the China situation was still the more probable scenario.

Bitcoin Shrugs Off FOMC “Nothingburger”

Despite the lack of catalysts, traders continue to anticipate a break from the current sideways range.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades commented, “Price has been compressing and it’s clear that the market is waiting for a big move to occur. The statistics still heavily favor a further displacement this week and especially this month.” He anticipates this could happen in the second half of June.

“Price has been compressing and it’s clear that the market is waiting for a big move to occur. The statistics still heavily favor a further displacement this week and especially this month.”

Trader Skew suggested bid liquidity could be found around the $103,000 level, contingent on price action breaching the $105,000 pivot. “Still chopping around but eyes on that $105K ask liquidity,” Skew observed.

Crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe described the recent Fed meeting as a “nothingburger,” suggesting a $106,000 test as a possibility in the coming days.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.