Bitcoin Price Analysis Points to Potential $330,000 Target

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s AVIV Ratio remains below historical peaks, suggesting a potential climb above $330,000 before a cycle top is confirmed.
Over-the-counter Bitcoin holdings have significantly decreased in 2025, indicating strategic accumulation by major entities like BlackRock.

Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a volatile month, but technical analysis points towards a potential significant price surge this cycle.

AVIV Ratio Signals Potential $330K High

Technical analyst Gert van Lagen utilizes the AVIV Ratio—a metric comparing Bitcoin’s active market capitalization (funds being actively traded) to its realized capitalization (total invested capital excluding miner rewards)—to predict market tops.

Historically, crossing the +3σ mean deviation on the AVIV Scale has preceded cycle tops at Bitcoin prices of approximately $1,200 in 2013, $20,000 in 2017, and $69,000 in 2021.

AVIV Ratio historical market comparison — Bitcoin AVIV Ratio comparison to historical market tops. Source: Gert Van Lagen/X

Currently, the AVIV Ratio is trading below these historical peaks. This suggests Bitcoin could surge to at least the $330,000 level before potentially meeting the traditional +3σ deviation signal.

OTC Holdings Decline Indicates Accumulation

Data from CryptoQuant reveals a significant drop in Bitcoin’s over-the-counter (OTC) holdings, falling from 166,500 BTC at the start of 2025 to 137,400 currently.

Bitcoin OTC holdings — Bitcoin OTC Desk Balance Trend. Source: CryptoQuant

This decline is attributed to strategic accumulation by institutional investors, led by firms like STRAT (Strategy), Metaplanet, and strong net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. For instance:

📊MARKET UPDATE: BlackRock added another $250 million in Bitcoin on June 17 — marking six straight days of buying, now totaling $1.4 billion. Its current $BTC holding is valued at over $70 billion.

— Cointelegraph Markets & Research (@CointelegraphMT) June 18, 2025

This accumulation suggests large holders are moving assets off exchanges, potentially indicating reduced selling pressure or a shift towards long-term storage.

Power Law Analysis Projects $220K-$330K Target

Similar projections emerged from an analysis by Bitcoin researcher Sminston With, who applied a power law model (R²=0.96) to a 365-day simple moving average (SMA).

Bitcoin power law analysis — Bitcoin power law fit analysis by Sminston With. Source: X

With’s model projects Bitcoin’s price could reach between $220,000 and $330,000. Currently trading around $104,000, a 100% to 200% surge would be required.

Unlike traditional trend-following models, With’s power law analysis suggests Bitcoin retains significant price volatility during bull markets, as seen by steady deviations from the trendline.

**Disclaimer:** This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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