The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) upcoming two-day monetary policy meeting commencing June 16–17 is focusing attention on the potential breaking point in global risk assets.

Delayed Tightening, Selected QE? According to BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes, the BOJ’s move could provide the next significant positive catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets if it pivots towards quantitative easing (QE).

If the BOJ delays quantitative tightening (QT) and restarts selected QE at its June meeting, risk assets are going to fly.

Understanding QE QE refers to central banks purchasing bonds and injecting liquidity into the economy to lower interest rates and stimulate spending during challenging financial periods.

Current Context The BOJ is reviewing its own plan announced on July 31, 2024, to cut government bond purchases by 400 billion yen per quarter, starting August 2024. This quantitative tightening measure is scheduled for an interim assessment period at the June meeting, suggesting a potential course correction.

Furthermore, unnamed sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that BOJ officials are reportedly considering a modification to the tapering plan, proposing smaller reductions starting from April 2027—lowering the target from 400bn yen to 200bn yen per quarter.

Market Events Spearheaded by 30Y Yields

Evidence of pressures facing Japanese government bonds intensified in May 2025 when the 30-year yield surged past 3.185%, marking a new all-time high on May 20. Consequently, Bitcoin briefly touched the $112,000 psychological barrier shortly after this event.

Shifts in Sovereign Bond Perception The spike in Japanese government bond yields in May 2025 triggered institutional reconsideration of Bitcoin’s standing as a hedge against sovereign default risk, according to Bitwise’s head of European research, André Dragosch.

“Perceived default risk continues rising, yields continue rising? This is a rough benchmark of why Bitcoin could be heading toward $200,000,” Dragosch explained. He adds the important feature that Bitcoin “is free from counterparty risk.” Conversely, typically safe-haven government bonds carry the risk of sovereign default if yields climb dramatically.