Bitcoin Analysis: Accumulation Near $100,000 Signal Strengthens

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s monthly outflow/inflow ratio drops to 0.9, signaling renewed long-term confidence and potential accumulation phase.
• Despite aggressive short-side pressure on Binance derivatives, BTC maintains a tight trading range near $100,000.
• Over 19,400 BTC ($2.11B) moved into institutional wallets from dormant holding periods (3-7 years).

Breaking above $100,000 on May 8, Bitcoin has closed above this psychological threshold daily. Following a brief correction to under $98,300 on June 22, BTC remains near pre-correction highs above $111,800.

A recent metric analyzed via CryptoQuant indicates strengthening long-term positioning. The monthly outflow/inflow ratio fell to 0.9, a historically significant level not seen since the end of 2022’s bear market.

This ratio measures the balance between coins moving onto and off centralized exchanges, serving as a market sentiment indicator. A reading below 1 indicates net movement *off* exchanges, signifying accumulation.

The current situation, with demand driving coins out of exchanges, aligns with historical precedents signaling stronger buy pressure. This contrasts sharply with values exceeding 1.05, which coincided with prior market tops.

Resilience near the $100,000 level is further demonstrated by persistent sell-side pressure against BTC. Over 45 days, Binance derivatives data shows a Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) dominance of negative values, indicating sustained short selling.

Yet, a correction to below $100,000 remains constrained. Last week, significant movement ($2.11B worth, ~19,400 BTC) transferred from dormant long-term wallets into “institutional-grade” addresses—a transfer reflecting strategic positioning.

These transfers, typically slow-moving, bolster confidence in current price levels. Their occurrence suggests large entities may be positioning Bitcoin at current levels despite visible short-term sell pressure.

This confluence of a key resistance level holding, persistent sell flow being absorbed, and large-scale accumulation supports the view that a structural bottom is forming near $100,000. While volatility persists, the evidence points to a potential foundation being established for the next significant market phase.

Bitcoin Absorbs Short Sell Pressure Despite Institutional Confidence

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The analysis discussed in this article is not investment advice. Trading and investing in cryptocurrencies involve significant risk.