Litecoin (LTC) Shows Positive Spot CVD Shift Despite Price Dip

Litecoin (LTC) has dipped below the $90 level, yet fundamental and on-chain indicators point towards a potential bullish reversal.

Key Takeaways:

  • LTC’s spot cumulative volume delta flipped positive for the first time since December 2024, signaling a shift in market sentiment.

  • A potential LTC ETF could fuel institutional demand, aligning with its consistently strong Q4 performance history.

While short-term price weakness prevails, several factors suggest a turning point may be approaching.

Positive Spot CVD Indicator

The 90-day Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) flipped positive recently, indicating a return to “taker buy dominant” market conditions. This shift, the first positive instance since December 2024, suggests market participants are stepping in to buy LTC at current levels.

LTC Spot Taker CVD 90-day chart
LTC Spot Taker CVD 90-day chart. Source: CryptoQuant

The development comes alongside speculation of a potential positive catalyst: an impending Litecoin ETF. Bloomberg analysts suggest a 95% chance that LTC, along with SOL and XRP ETFs, could receive SEC approval by late October.

If approved, an LTC ETF would represent a historic milestone, potentially unlocking institutional demand and broadening mass market accessibility.

Seasonality and Historical Patterns

Data indicates August and September are typically the weakest months for LTC since 2012. However, this bearish seasonality habitually reverses in Q4, with November historically being the strongest month for LTC.

LTC Seasonality chart
LTC Seasonality chart. Source: X

The timing of a potential ETF approval aligns with this seasonal pivot, setting the stage for a potential rally. Combined with observed shifts in on-chain buyer behavior, current weakness may signal a strategic accumulation zone.

Current Chart Pattern Echoes Q4 2024

LTC’s current price trajectory mirrors its strong performance in 2024. The cryptocurrency entered a correction phase briefly above the $90 threshold after strong Q1 gains.

The structure currently sees a potential parallel with a persistent high-conviction demand zone that previously validated a strong breakout in Q4 2024.

LTC 1-day chart
LTC 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Intensifying accumulation within the current demand zone could trigger a renewed upward movement. Confirmation via a breakout above the descending trendline and reclaimance of the 50- and 200-day moving averages typically reinforces bullish continuation into the crucial Q4 2025 period.

This analysis is not financial advice. Investing and trading crypto involves risk.