Crypto analysts have voiced skepticism regarding veteran trader and cryptocurrency advocate Peter Brandt’s speculation on X that Bitcoin could endure a 75% correction, mirroring its precipitous 2022 decline.
Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph, “Never say never; it just feels very unlikely at the moment.”
Peter Brandt questions forbearance patterns
Brandt sparked the debate with a recent post on X, querying whether Bitcoin’s (BTC) current price action parallels the severe drop seen in 2022.
In November 2021, Bitcoin reached its then-record high of $69,000 before plummeting roughly 76% over the subsequent year, hovering around $16,195 by November 2022, according to CoinMarketCap data.
“Is Bitcoin $BTC following its 2022 script and setting up for a 75% correction? Doesn’t hurt to ask this, does it?” Brandt questioned.
If such a decline were to occur from Bitcoin’s current approximate $107,810 price, it would theoretically sink to around $26,000—a level unseen since September 2023.
Mi菠萝叉 analysis: Disparities in context
Hundal contends the current environment presents starkly different macroeconomic fundamentals compared to 2022.
“The difference in macro fundamentals between now and 2022 is profound,” he stated.
“In 2022, we had an economic hangover from the COVID-era of money printing and stimulus. The environment today is totally different,” he elaborated. Hundal noted an August 2021 survey indicating that 10% of Americans aged 18-34 invested crypto using their COVID-19 stimulus funds—a notable but vital contextual factor.
Factoring FTX and Fed policies
Analyst Andy Edstrom acknowledged Brandt’s reasoning but questioned the magnitude of a 75% correction.
“So far it [is a correction pattern], but not the 75% magnitude because the dip between the double-tops this year was far less severe than in 2021,” Edstrom asserted.
Edstrom views the 2021 cycle “truncated” by the FTX collapse, wherein the exchange allegedly “failed to fill its customers’ orders and instead sold them ‘paper’ BTC.”
Countering bears
Collective Shift research analyst Simon Amery further highlighted the Federal Reserve’s role.
Speaking to Cointelegraph, Amery observed, “while the Federal Reserve started winding down quantitative easing in November 2021, monetary policy is now ‘heading in the opposite direction.'” Several analysts dismiss the possibility, pointing to Bitcoin’s purported price momentum.
Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto believes the prediction unlikely, arguing Bitcoin’s price hasn’t peaked yet. “Sentiment is pretty bad for this to be a top. There’s no euphoria on the timeline,” he said.
Saylor: Defying last winter’s narrative
Hundal suggested technical analysis offered mixed signals, with some indicators “pointing to a big cyclical wash,” but his assessment leaned towards conditions signaling an inflection point favorable to Bitcoin. Strategy co-founder and Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor, however, forcefully contested this view.
“Winter is not coming back,” Saylor declared to Bloomberg on Tuesday. “We’re past that phase; if Bitcoin’s not going to zero, it’s going to $1 million.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
