Market Position

Bitcoin (BTC) is edging closer to an all-time high as prices consolidate near the $108,500 mark, setting the stage for significant moves ahead of the month’s and quarter’s close.

Analysts note escalating price volatility, potentially fueled by order-book liquidity games by large-volume traders, as BTC/USD shows technical inability to breach the $104,630 threshold to secure its highest-ever monthly close.

Current BTC/USD levels position the cryptocurrency on track for its highest weekly close on record, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

Technical Bullsight

To confirm its highest monthly close ever, BTC needs to maintain a closing price of $104,550 or higher over the course of June.

The formation and subsequent closing of specific gaps in CME Group’s futures market over the weekend have drawn trader attention, suggesting key price levels where supply and demand are anticipated.

On-Chain Analysis Signals Concern

On-chain analytics indicate a “critical demand deficit” in the Bitcoin market. According to CryptoQuant, selling pressure primarily from long-term holders and newly mined coins is outpacing buying demand.

Coined the “Apparent Demand” metric, CryptoQuant’s rolling 30-day data shows negative territory, the last instance occurring when Bitcoin emerged from multi-month bear market lows under $75,000.

This signals an excess of sell-side pressure, potentially weakening market support and limiting upside gains despite the near-record high prices.

Macro Context & Fed Rhetoric

Quiet US macroeconomic data has spotlighted the Federal Reserve through the lens of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent congressional testimony.

Contradictory narratives have emerged: while Fed officials maintain resolve against imminent rate cuts, President Donald Trump publicly advocates for cutting interest rates, suggesting a policy impasse may influence broader market sentiment.

The likelihood of a rate cut initially increased following the Fed’s testimony and is seen by markets as pivoting from August to the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently assigns a 75% probability of a 0.25% rate cut by the Federal Reserve following its Sept. 17 meeting.

Bull Market Timeline Question

Some analysts speculate the current Bitcoin bull market may have a limited timeline.

Trader Rekt Capital suggests the possibility of a blow-off top in September/October 2025, noting historical precedents set by Bitcoin’s accelerated cycle in 2024 leading up to the block subsidy halving, and implying a potential “a slowing down in its cycle” could prompt accelerated gains.

Note

This article provides market analysis and context for informational purposes only and does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Trading Bitcoin carries significant risk.